Coteau Pro Field Manual: Systematic Trading, Options Curve & Portfolio Risk
The 6 Types of Trading & When Each Works
Scalp (1–15m), Intraday Momentum (15–120m), Multi-Day Swing (2–15d), Position / Trend (2–12w), Options Income & Convexity (7–60 DTE), and Systematic Multi-Asset Sleeve Rebalancing.
- Scalp / Tape (1m–15m): Trade only liquid leaders (>3x RVOL, spread <0.05%). Hard stop below opening range or VWAP.
- Intraday Momentum / ORB (15m–2h): Enter on 5m/15m Opening Range Breakout above VWAP with volume confirmation.
- Multi-Day Swing / PEAD (2d–15d): Post-Earnings Announcement Drift & tight flags surfing the rising 10/21 EMA.
- Position & Secular Trend (2w–12w): Weekly RS > 85 above rising 50 SMA & 200 SMA; scale out only on weekly 21 EMA close break.
- Options Income & Convexity (7–60 DTE): Sell premium when IV Rank > 50%; buy debit spreads when IV Rank < 30%.
- Core Systematic Portfolio (Monthly/Quarterly): Combine Equity Alpha + Treasury Duration (TLT/IEF/SGOV) + Energy/Commodities + Crypto.
Entry Triggers: ORB, VWAP Reclaim, 21 EMA Pullback & Base Breakout
Never chase extended candles >2.5x ATR above the 21 EMA. Demand tight risk invalidation at a clear structural pivot.
- Opening Range Breakout (ORB): Mark high/low of first 15 minutes. Enter long on break of ORB high when price > VWAP and RVOL > 1.8x.
- VWAP Reclaim & Higher-Low Pivot: Wait for morning flush to undercut VWAP, reclaim VWAP on rising volume, and hold first higher low.
- 21 EMA Tight Pullback (Pocket Pivot): In an established Stage-2 uptrend (price > 21 EMA > 50 SMA), buy the first low-volume inside day at 21 EMA.
- Multi-Week VCP / Flat-Base Breakout: Volatility contracts from -18% to -6% to -2.5% before breaking pivot on >200% volume.
The 1R Risk Law & Exact Share Sizing Formula
Professionals size every position by Dollar Risk (1R), never by arbitrary share count. Shares = (Account × Risk%) ÷ |Entry − Stop|.
- Define 1R before every order: Standard 1R = 0.50% to 1.00% of total equity per trade ($500–$1,000 on a $100,000 desk).
- Formula: Shares = Floor( (Account Equity × Risk%) / (Entry Price − Invalidation Stop Price) ).
- Portfolio Heat Cap: Maximum open unhedged risk across all active swing positions must never exceed 5.0R.
- Drawdown Throttle: If desk equity drops -5% in a month, cut 1R size in half (0.25%–0.50%) until two consecutive green weeks.
Systematic Exit Hierarchy: Hard Stops, +2R Scales & 21 EMA Trails
Amateur traders take tiny profits early and let losers run. Systematic traders lock in partial gains at +2R and trail the core.
- Rule 1 — Unconditional Hard Stop at -1.0R: Never widen a stop after entry. If price touches invalidation, exit 100% immediately.
- Rule 2 — De-Risk at +1.5R to +2.0R: Sell 1/3 of the position and move stop on the remaining 2/3 to breakeven entry price.
- Rule 3 — Trail Core on 10 EMA / 21 EMA: Hold the remaining 2/3 until the first daily close below the 21 EMA (or weekly 10 WMA).
- Rule 4 — Climax Top Override: If stock gaps up >3x ATR on exhaustion volume >4x average, trim an additional 1/3 into strength.
Options Payoff Diagrams, Delta/Theta/Vega & Structure Selection
Match option structure to IV Rank and directional conviction: Debit Verticals, Credit Put Spreads, Iron Condors, Calendars & PMCC.
- Bull Call / Bear Put Vertical (IV Rank < 35%): Buy 0.60Δ ITM/ATM leg, sell 0.30Δ OTM leg at target to cap Theta decay and Vega crush.
- Bull Put / Bear Call Credit Spread (IV Rank > 50%): Sell 0.25Δ–0.30Δ strike beyond support/resistance, buy protection 5–10 pts out; take profit at 50% max credit.
- Iron Condor (Range-Bound + High IVR): Combine 0.20Δ Put Credit Spread + 0.20Δ Call Credit Spread; manage at 21 DTE.
- Diagonal / Poor Man's Covered Call (PMCC): Buy 90–180 DTE 0.80Δ deep ITM call, sell 21–30 DTE 0.25Δ OTM call against it.
Rolling Options Audit: When Rolling Helps vs. Compounds a Loser
Every option roll must pass a 4-point quantitative test: Net Credit/Debit, Breakeven Shift, Risk/Reward Change, and Capital Lockup.
- HELPING Roll #1 — Defensive Credit Roll (Short Put/Spread): Rolling out 21–30 DTE AND down in strike for a NET CREDIT improves breakeven without adding max loss.
- HELPING Roll #2 — Winner Reset (Long Debit/Call): Taking profits out of an appreciated ITM call (+150%) and rolling up to a higher strike using house money locks in principal.
- HURTING Roll #1 — Paying a Net Debit to Extend a Losing OTM Option: Rolling a losing long option out in time for extra debit increases capital at risk on a broken thesis.
- HURTING Roll #2 — Doubling Contracts to Roll for 'Even': Increasing contract count to force a credit doubles tail risk in a trending move against you.
Multi-Asset Allocation: Equities, Bonds/Treasuries, Energy & Crypto
Balance high-beta growth equities with Treasury duration (TLT/IEF/SGOV), hard-asset inflation hedges (XLE/GLD), and asymmetric sleeves.
- Core Equity Sleeve (50%–65%): Diversify across low-correlation sectors; cap any single stock at ≤12% at cost (≤18% at market).
- Fixed Income & Treasury Sleeve (15%–30%): Use SGOV/SHY (0–3Y T-Bills) in rising-rate regimes; shift to IEF (7–10Y) & TLT (20Y+) when Fed cuts.
- Hard Assets & Energy Sleeve (5%–15%): XLE, uranium/grid infrastructure, and GLD protect portfolio purchasing power during CPI/supply shocks.
- Asymmetric / Crypto Sleeve (2%–10%): Size BTC/ETH/SOL so a -50% drawdown impacts total portfolio equity by ≤2.5%.
Trading 13F Institutional, 13D Activist, Form 4 Insider & Congress Filings
How to separate high-signal cluster insider buying and new 13D activist stakes from noisy routine filings.
- Form 4 Open-Market Cluster Buys (Code P): Highest signal when CEO + CFO + 1 Director buy >$250K in the open market within 10 trading days.
- Schedule 13D Activist Stakes (≥5%): Filed within 10 days of crossing 5% with active intent (board seats, spin-off, buyback).
- 13F-HR Multi-Manager Conviction: Track new positions where ≥3 top Tiger/Quant/Value funds initiate >2% portfolio weight in the same quarter.
- Congressional PTR Filings: Watch committee-aligned purchases disclosed within 30–45 days under the STOCK Act.
Reading the 4 Market Regimes: Trend Bull, Volatile Bull, Chop & Risk-Off Bear
70% of a stock's move comes from market & sector regime. Adjust gross exposure and target R-multiples to the active regime.
- Regime 1 — Low-Vol Uptrend (SPY > 21 EMA > 50 SMA, VIX < 17): 80–100% gross exposure; buy breakouts & 21 EMA pullbacks; trail for +3R to +5R.
- Regime 2 — High-Vol Uptrend (SPY > 50 SMA, VIX 18–24): 50–70% exposure; buy pullbacks only (never gap-ups); take 1/2 off at +1.5R.
- Regime 3 — Choppy Range (SPY criss-crossing flat 50 SMA): 25–40% exposure; favor Iron Condors, credit spreads, and T-Bill yield (SGOV).
- Regime 4 — Risk-Off Bear (SPY < declining 50 SMA & 200 SMA, VIX > 25): Raise 50–80% cash/SGOV; hedge with index put spreads.
Win/Loss Journaling, Profit Factor & Eliminating Leakages
Track Win Rate, Average Win (R), Average Loss (R), and Expectancy = (Win% × AvgWin) − (Loss% × AvgLoss) across every setup tag.
- Expectancy Formula: E = (Win% × Avg Win R) − (Loss% × Avg Loss R). A 42% win-rate trader with +2.8R avg win and -1.0R avg loss nets +0.60R per trade.
- Profit Factor = Gross Wins ($) ÷ Gross Losses ($). Target Profit Factor ≥ 1.75x across every rolling 20-trade block.
- Tag Every Mistake: FOMO Chasing (>2 ATR above 21 EMA), Stop Violation (holding past -1R), Premature Exit (<+1R), or Oversizing.
- Weekly Friday Audit: Delete or prune broken setups with Profit Factor < 1.1x and double down on your top 2 highest-expectancy tags.
