Learn · Advanced
Same average return, different order, very different outcome when money is withdrawn
With no withdrawals, the order of returns doesn't change the ending value. Once money is being taken out each year, bad years early do more damage, because withdrawals lock in the losses before the recovery.
Two 30-year runs with the same average return can end with very different balances if one starts with a crash and the other ends with one.
Educational only. Describes ideas and how Coteau shows them; not a forecast and not advice.
Free to use. No card, no ads, no auto-renew.
Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app
Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026Coteau is independent and not affiliated with the SEC, the U.S. House, any fund, company or person shown, or any data provider.
What's confusing, broken or missing? It goes straight to Coteau, along with the page you're on.
Independent research, models, opinions and convictions.
Not investment advice. Coteau is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, does not invest or manage money, and does not sell investment advice.
Nothing here is personalized; it does not consider your finances, goals or risk tolerance.
Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before investing.
Using Coteau does not create an adviser–client relationship. Nothing here is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Our models can be wrong. Holdings and ideas may be highly aggressive, speculative, out of date, or wrong at times.
Coteau is not responsible for any losses, including loss of capital, from use of this information. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past and hypothetical results do not guarantee future results.
Backtested and hypothetical results are built with hindsight and do not reflect actual trading, fees, taxes or slippage.
The author may hold positions in securities discussed and may change them at any time without notice.
Data may be delayed, incomplete or inaccurate and is provided as is, without warranty. Prices on the public site are at least 15 minutes delayed.
Coteau is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the SEC, the U.S. House of Representatives, any fund, company, or person shown, or any data provider (including Yahoo Finance and Alpaca). Fund holdings come from public SEC filings; congressional trades from public House disclosures.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.
Company names and logos are trademarks of their owners and are used for identification only.
Corrections or removal requests (including from people or funds shown): desk@coteau.app.
Contact: desk@coteau.app