Macro dashboard
Rates, inflation, jobs and the yield curve from official U.S. public data.
Rates
Inflation and jobs
Recession signals
- NBER recession indicator: no recession as of Sep 1, 2026 (NBER dates are set months after the fact).
- Sahm rule: 0.00 points (triggers at 0.50). 3-month average unemployment vs its low of the prior 12 months.
- 2s10s curve: positive (+33 bp); last inverted Sep 5, 2024.
- 10-year minus 3-month: positive (+104 bp); last inverted Apr 30, 2025.
An inverted curve (short rates above long rates) has come before most U.S. recessions, with long and variable lags, and has given false signals. None of these is a forecast.
Treasury yield curve
Oct 21, 2026Not inverted: the 10-year yields more than the 3-month bill and the 2-year.
| Maturity | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4.09 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.52 | 4.81 | 4.89 | 4.95 | 5.03 | 5.13 | 5.47 | 5.42 |
Futures positioning (COT)
Report of Oct 13, 2026Net long minus short contracts held by large speculators ("non-commercial") in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of Tuesday, published Friday.
| Market | Spec net | Week chg | % of OI | 1-yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 E-mini | -140,995 | +13,075 | -7.3% | 34% |
| Nasdaq-100 E-mini | +48,523 | -9,600 | +17.4% | 90% |
| 10-year T-note | -988,102 | -91,621 | -17.0% | 0% |
| WTI crude oil | +100,343 | +1,283 | +5.3% | 31% |
| Gold | +207,879 | -2,456 | +52.4% | 55% |
| U.S. dollar index | +12,919 | +908 | +24.9% | 75% |
| Euro FX | -137,573 | -38,241 | -15.7% | 0% |
| Bitcoin (CME) | +2,534 | -6 | +12.2% | 70% |
1-yr range: where this week's net sits between its lowest (0%) and highest (100%) of the last 52 reports. Positioning is context, not a signal.
Updated Oct 22, 2026 1:43 PM ET. Refreshed twice a day; each figure shows its own date.
Sources
Rates, inflation, jobs and the recession indicator: U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and NBER data, retrieved via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED does not endorse Coteau. Inflation is the change vs 12 months earlier, computed from the index levels. Payrolls is the monthly change.
Yield curve: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Futures positioning: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Commitments of Traders (legacy, futures only). All public data.
Research only. Important disclosures.
Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app
Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026