AA
Alcoa Corporation
$41.67
+0.53% 2026-10-19
MaterialsS&P 400
AASPY
1W
+0.0%
1M
-6.2%
3M
-4.0%
6M
-37.1%
YTD
-21.2%
1Y
+16.8%
Grades vs sector
Momentum54th pct in sectorC+
Momentum
54th pct in sector
12-1 return: +15.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth82nd pct in sectorA-
Growth
82nd pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +23.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value97th pct in sectorA+
Value
97th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 13.9% · EBITDA/EV: 25.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability79th pct in sectorB+
Profitability
79th pct in sector
Profit margin: +10.7% · Return on equity: +20.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$11.0B
P/E (trailing)7.2
P/E (forward)7.5
52-week range35.12 – 84.38
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+23.7%
Dividend yield0.97%
Analyst consensusBuy (13)
Mean price target$59.82 (+44%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 88%
▲Forward P/E vs sector7.5x vs median 12.7x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Analyst target+44% (13 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Aluminum profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.4B, a 3% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 1.1%) times current revenue = 0.1B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $18; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $5. Glossary
Bear
$2
-95%
growth 7% · disc. 13.9% · term. 2.0%
Base
$5
-88%
growth 12% · disc. 12.9% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$8
-80%
growth 15% · disc. 11.9% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 1.1% average margin × current revenue = 0.1B (last 12 months: 0.4B at a 3% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $18.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 34% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+34%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+18%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+69%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+7%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.1B, 12.9% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.74 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Materials
P/E (trailing)
cheaper
sector median 20.6× · 3rd pct
7.2×cheaper
Forward P/E
cheaper
sector median 12.7× · 8th pct
7.5×cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.1×
–Price / sales
cheaper
sector median 1.4× · 30th pct
0.8×cheaper
Price / book
cheaper
sector median 2.3× · 47th pct
2.1×cheaper
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 4.7% · 32nd pct
3.2%pricier
Forward EPS $5.59 vs trailing $5.75 (-3% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
2.6%
Net margin
9.4%
Return on equity
24.8%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.5×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.8×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$60
+44%
Analysts
13
Buy
Range
$48–$80
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $12.8B | $1.2B | $567.0M |
| 2024 | $11.9B | $60.0M | $42.0M |
| 2023 | $10.6B | $-651.0M | $-440.0M |
| 2022 | $12.5B | $-123.0M | $342.0M |
| 2021 | $12.2B | $429.0M | $530.0M |
| 2020 | $9.3B | $-170.0M | $41.0M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +1.0%.
Earnings
Next report: 2027-01-21 · during market · EPS est 1.52
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 1.51 | 1.82 | +20.2% |
| 2026-07-16 | 2.19 | 2.12 | -3.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | 1.55 | 1.40 | -9.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | 1.01 | 1.26 | +24.7% |
| 2025-10-22 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +63.0% |
| 2025-07-16 | 0.39 | 0.39 | +1.1% |
| 2025-04-16 | 1.41 | 2.15 | +52.9% |
| 2025-01-22 | 1.01 | 1.04 | +2.8% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $4.0B | +31.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | $3.2B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $3.4B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $3.0B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.0B | – |
Analyst actions
Barclays
PT $55
2026-10-14 · init
→ OverweightPT $55
JP Morgan
PT $50
2026-10-07 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $50
Morgan Stanley
PT $50
2026-10-07 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-WeightPT $50
Freedom Broker
PT $76
2026-09-22 · main
Buy → BuyPT $76
Wells Fargo
PT $60
2026-09-18 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $60
Argus Research
PT $55
2026-07-22 · main
Buy → BuyPT $55
Recent dividends
2026-08-11: $0.100 · 2026-05-19: $0.100 · 2026-03-10: $0.100 · 2025-11-04: $0.100 · 2025-08-12: $0.100 · 2025-05-20: $0.100 · 2025-03-04: $0.100 · 2024-10-29: $0.100
Insider trades
Bacchi Renato
$35.7K
EVP & Chief Commercial Officer · 2026-08-31
SELL$35.7K
Jones Tammi A
$790.7K
EVP & CHRO · 2026-08-27
SELL$790.7K
Hastings Andrew
$305.4K
EVP & Gen. Counsel · 2026-08-17
SELL$305.4K
Reed Matthew T
$215.4K
EVP, Chief Operations Officer · 2026-07-22
SELL$215.4K
None
–
None · None
SELL–
News
Alcoa Gains 8%, United States Antimony Jumps 10% After Alcoa’s Q3 Beat and Data Center Site Sale; Cleveland-Cliffs Rises 2%
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 16
Alcoa Earnings Were a Relief, and the Stock Looks Cheap
Barrons.com · Oct 15
After-Hours Earnings Report for October 15, 2026 : IBKR, JBHT, AA, INDB, CNS, SFNC, LOOP
Nasdaq · Oct 15
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:03:00 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.