AAL
American Airlines Group
$11.68
-1.68% 2026-10-19
IndustrialsS&P 400
AALSPY
1W
-7.4%
1M
-9.9%
3M
-22.9%
6M
-4.6%
YTD
-23.8%
1Y
-1.5%
Grades vs sector
Momentum42nd pct in sectorC
Momentum
42nd pct in sector
12-1 return: +1.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth73rd pct in sectorB+
Growth
73rd pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +16.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value87th pct in sectorA-
Value
87th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 11.6% · EBITDA/EV: 9.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability7th pct in sectorF
Profitability
7th pct in sector
Profit margin: -0.6% · Return on equity: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap–
P/E (trailing)–
P/E (forward)–
52-week range– – –
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)–
Dividend yield–
Analyst consensus–
Mean price target–
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 41%
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▼Net debt / EBITDA7.0x
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Passenger Airlines profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (4.4B, a 7% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 3.3%) times current revenue = 1.9B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $77; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $16. Glossary
Bear
$-1
-106%
growth -1% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$16
+41%
growth 4% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$40
+242%
growth 7% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 3.3% average margin × current revenue = 1.9B (last 12 months: 4.4B at a 7% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $77.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Not enough data to run a reverse DCF.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.00 (n/a) × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Industrials
P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.4×
–Forward P/E
sector median 17.1×
–EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.8×
–Price / sales
sector median 2.1×
–Price / book
sector median 3.5×
–FCF yield
sector median 4.5%
–Quality & financial health
Gross margin
–
Operating margin
1.7%
FCF margin
7.5%
Net margin
-0.6%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
4.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
7.0×
Current ratio
0.5×
Interest cover
0.6×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
No analyst targets available.
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $54.6B | $111.0M | $3.1B |
| 2024 | $54.2B | $846.0M | $4.0B |
| 2023 | $52.8B | $822.0M | $3.8B |
| 2022 | $49.0B | $127.0M | $2.2B |
| 2021 | $29.9B | $-2.0B | $704.0M |
| 2020 | $17.3B | $-8.9B | $-6.5B |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +3.7%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-22 · before open · EPS est -0.33
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 0.05 | 0.15 | +227.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.46 | -0.40 | +13.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.35 | 0.16 | -54.6% |
| 2025-10-23 | -0.28 | -0.17 | +38.2% |
| 2025-07-24 | 0.77 | 0.95 | +22.7% |
| 2025-04-24 | -0.67 | -0.59 | +12.1% |
| 2025-01-23 | 0.66 | 0.86 | +30.1% |
| 2024-10-24 | 0.17 | 0.30 | +80.8% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $16.7B | +16.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | $13.9B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $14.0B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $13.7B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $14.4B | – |
Recent dividends
2020-02-04: $0.100 · 2019-11-05: $0.100 · 2019-08-06: $0.100 · 2019-05-07: $0.100 · 2019-02-05: $0.100 · 2018-11-05: $0.100 · 2018-08-06: $0.100 · 2018-05-07: $0.100
Insider trades
Johnson Stephen L
$458.8K
Vice Chair · 2026-07-31
SELL$458.8K
Owens Angela
$611.6K
SVP Corporate Controller · 2026-07-31
SELL$611.6K
Johnson Stephen L
$457.9K
Vice Chair · 2026-07-30
SELL$457.9K
Johnson Stephen L
$450.4K
Vice Chair · 2026-07-29
SELL$450.4K
Johnson Stephen L
$454.8K
Vice Chair · 2026-07-28
SELL$454.8K
Owens Angela
$601.0K
SVP Corporate Controller · 2026-07-28
SELL$601.0K
Johnson Stephen L
$440.1K
Vice Chair · 2026-07-27
SELL$440.1K
None
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None · None
SELL–
None
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None · None
SELL–
News
United Airlines Earnings Land Next. Only 1 Thing Can Save the Sector’s Stocks.
Barrons.com · 4h ago
American Airlines Is Now Down 23% This Year: Is AAL Stock Dead Money or Due for a Bounce?
24/7 Wall St. · 17h ago
Delta Air Lines' Q4 Guidance Slightly Raises Revenue Bar for Peers, UBS Says
MT Newswires · 19h ago
Is American Airlines Stock's Drop A Chance To Buy?
Trefis · Oct 15
SpaceX Expands Footprint With United Airlines Days After AAL Rollout – Starlink’s Now Available On Nearly Half Its Flights
Stocktwits · Oct 15
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:03:36 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.