AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

$538.05

+1.76% 2026-10-19

Information TechnologyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

AMDSPY

-9.5%

-3.9%

+6.8%

+95.7%

YTD

+151.2%

+130.8%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

90th pct in sector

12-1 return: +138.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

91st pct in sector

Revenue growth (YoY): +50.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

9th pct in sector

D-

Forward E/P: 3.0% · EBITDA/EV: 1.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

52nd pct in sector

C+

Profit margin: +15.6% · Return on equity: +10.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Top 15.

Momentum Top 15

6.7% of the book · rank 8 of 499

Held Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Momentum Top 15 #8 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +190.9% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 8th of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 11th.

Key stats

Market cap$878.4B

P/E (trailing)137.3

P/E (forward)34.1

52-week range188.22 – 658.52

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+50.1%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusStrong Buy (51)

Mean price target$627.65 (+17%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans expensive

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 85%

▼Forward P/E vs sector34.1x vs median 16.9x

▲Piotroski F-score8/9

▲Net debt / EBITDA-1.3x

▲Analyst target+17% (51 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins

Bear

$41

-92%

growth 18% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$79

-85%

growth 30% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$130

-76%

growth 38% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 7.5% average margin × current revenue = 3.1B (last 12 months: 8.4B at a 20% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $205.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows more than 50% a year for 10 years.

Implied

>50%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

+29%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

+54%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+14%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+29%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 3.1B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-27). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 2.45 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)

sector median 35.9× · 94th pct

137.3×
pricier

Forward P/E

sector median 16.9× · 90th pct

34.1×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 20.8× · 96th pct

128.8×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 4.6× · 93rd pct

21.3×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 5.1× · 81st pct

13.1×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 3.5% · 17th pct

1.0%
pricier

Forward EPS $15.76 vs trailing $3.92 (+302% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$222.0M

as of 2026-06-27

vs a year ago

+2%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.01×

coverage

24-09

24-12

25-03

25-06

25-09

25-12

26-03

26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

53.2%

Operating margin

15.7%

FCF margin

20.3%

Net margin

15.6%

Return on equity

9.6%

Return on invested capital

9.5%

Net debt / EBITDA

-1.3×

Current ratio

2.6×

Interest cover

44.1×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.6×

Piotroski F-score 8/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target

$628

+17%

Analysts

Strong Buy

Range

$200–$1,250

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$34.6B	$4.3B	$6.7B
2024	$25.8B	$1.6B	$2.4B
2023	$22.7B	$854.0M	$1.1B
2022	$23.6B	$1.3B	$3.1B
2021	$16.4B	$3.2B	$3.2B
2020	$9.8B	$2.5B	$777.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +13.6%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-03 · during market · EPS est 1.93

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-04	1.61	1.66	+3.2%
2026-05-05	1.29	1.37	+5.8%
2026-02-03	1.32	1.53	+15.5%
2025-11-04	1.18	1.20	+2.1%
2025-08-05	0.50	0.48	-3.5%
2025-05-06	0.93	0.96	+2.8%
2025-02-04	1.09	1.09	+0.4%
2024-10-29	0.92	0.92	+0.5%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$11.5B	+50.1%
2026-03-31	$10.3B	–
2025-12-31	$10.3B	–
2025-09-30	$9.2B	–
2025-06-30	$7.7B	–

Analyst actions

Citigroup

2026-10-06 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $800

Mizuho

2026-10-06 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $705

Stifel

2026-10-05 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $700

StoneX

2026-09-29 · reit

Buy → Buy
PT $685

Rosenblatt

2026-09-29 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $700

B of A Securities

2026-09-25 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $720

Insider trades

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$436.7K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$441.2K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$255.8K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$650.2K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$494.6K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$1.1M

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$2.5M

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$1.2M

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-10-15

SELL
$2.2M

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-09-15

SELL
$377.2K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-09-15

SELL
$49.9K

Norrod Forrest Eugene

EVP & GM DSG · 2026-09-15

SELL
$509.2K

Research

Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expect2026-10-18

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Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:02:25 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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