AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
$33.68
+0.72% 2026-10-19
MaterialsS&P 400
AXTASPY
1W
+1.8%
1M
+4.6%
3M
+4.9%
6M
+13.5%
YTD
+4.2%
1Y
+18.3%
Grades vs sector
Momentum49th pct in sectorC+
Momentum
49th pct in sector
12-1 return: +13.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth26th pct in sectorD+
Growth
26th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +3.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value59th pct in sectorB-
Value
59th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 8.5% · EBITDA/EV: 10.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability61st pct in sectorB-
Profitability
61st pct in sector
Profit margin: +6.8% · Return on equity: +14.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$7.2B
P/E (trailing)20.7
P/E (forward)11.9
52-week range24.94 – 38.61
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+3.1%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (17)
Mean price target$39.18 (+16%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 59%
•Forward P/E vs sector11.9x vs median 12.7x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
•Altman Z2.5 (grey)
•Net debt / EBITDA2.6x
▲Analyst target+16% (17 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Specialty Chemicals profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.5B, a 10% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2017–FY2025 (9 years: 8.6%) times current revenue = 0.4B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $17; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $14. Glossary
Bear
$5
-85%
growth -3% · disc. 11.6% · term. 2.0%
Base
$14
-59%
growth 2% · disc. 10.6% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$25
-27%
growth 5% · disc. 9.6% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 8.6% average margin × current revenue = 0.4B (last 12 months: 0.5B at a 10% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $17.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 10% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+10%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+47%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+2%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+6%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.4B, 10.6% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-03-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.26 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Materials
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 20.6× · 51st pct
20.7×pricier
Forward P/E
cheaper
sector median 12.7× · 42nd pct
11.9×cheaper
EV / EBITDA
cheaper
sector median 11.1× · 41st pct
9.7×cheaper
Price / sales
cheaper
sector median 1.4× · 49th pct
1.4×cheaper
Price / book
pricier
sector median 2.3× · 65th pct
3.0×pricier
FCF yield
cheaper
sector median 4.7% · 70th pct
6.8%cheaper
Forward EPS $2.84 vs trailing $1.63 (+74% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
34.2%
Operating margin
13.8%
FCF margin
9.6%
Net margin
7.2%
Return on equity
15.2%
Return on invested capital
10.0%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.6×
Current ratio
2.1×
Interest cover
4.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.9×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 2.5 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$39
+16%
Analysts
17
Buy
Range
$33–$47
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $5.1B | $378.0M | $453.0M |
| 2024 | $5.3B | $391.0M | $436.0M |
| 2023 | $5.2B | $267.0M | $437.0M |
| 2022 | $4.9B | $192.0M | $143.0M |
| 2021 | $4.4B | $263.9M | $437.0M |
| 2020 | $3.7B | $121.6M | $427.2M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +1.6%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-29 · before open · EPS est 0.70
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 0.65 | 0.72 | +10.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | 0.50 | 0.56 | +11.7% |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.60 | 0.59 | -1.8% |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.64 | 0.67 | +4.2% |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.61 | 0.64 | +4.4% |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.55 | 0.59 | +8.1% |
| 2025-02-04 | 0.51 | 0.60 | +17.4% |
| 2024-10-30 | 0.51 | 0.59 | +15.1% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $1.3B | +3.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.3B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.3B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.3B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.3B | – |
Analyst actions
Barclays
PT $45
2026-10-13 · init
→ OverweightPT $45
UBS
PT $36
2026-10-05 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $36
Keybanc
PT $47
2026-09-11 · init
→ OverweightPT $47
BMO Capital
PT $39
2026-07-29 · main
Market Perform → Market PerformPT $39
Baird
PT $37
2026-07-29 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $37
RBC Capital
PT $36
2026-07-08 · main
Sector Perform → Sector PerformPT $36
Insider trades
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
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None · None
SELL–
News
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AkzoNobel and Axalta to be called Axanzo following merger
GlobeNewswire · Oct 15
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Axalta (AXTA) Stock Looks Fairly Valued After A 26% Run
Simply Wall St. · Oct 15
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:46:55 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.