CIEN

Ciena Corporation

$344.20

+3.45% 2026-10-19

Information TechnologyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

CIENSPY

-15.0%

-1.3%

-9.1%

-31.6%

YTD

+47.2%

+101.3%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

78th pct in sector

B+

12-1 return: +85.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

83rd pct in sector

A-

Revenue growth (YoY): +37.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

16th pct in sector

Forward E/P: 3.6% · EBITDA/EV: 2.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

60th pct in sector

B-

Profit margin: +10.9% · Return on equity: +22.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Top 15.

Momentum Top 15

6.7% of the book · rank 10 of 499

Held Quality Growth

rank 46 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.7

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Momentum Top 15 #10 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +162.8% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 10th of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 26th.

Key stats

Market cap$48.8B

P/E (trailing)77.0

P/E (forward)29.0

52-week range159.56 – 637.51

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+37.0%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (20)

Mean price target$512.99 (+49%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans expensive

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 39%

▼Forward P/E vs sector29.0x vs median 16.9x

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

▲Altman Z7.1 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA0.8x

▲Analyst target+49% (20 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$108

-68%

growth 14% · disc. 11.7% · term. 2.0%

Base

$211

-39%

growth 23% · disc. 10.7% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$355

+3%

growth 29% · disc. 9.7% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 24% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+24%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

+10%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+10%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+6%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.8B, 10.7% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-01). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.29 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)

sector median 35.9× · 84th pct

77.0×
pricier

Forward P/E

sector median 16.9× · 84th pct

29.0×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 20.8× · 90th pct

66.9×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 4.6× · 72nd pct

8.1×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 5.1× · 87th pct

16.0×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 3.5% · 24th pct

1.7%
pricier

Forward EPS $11.86 vs trailing $4.47 (+165% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$2.5B

as of 2026-08-01

vs a year ago

+25%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.42×

coverage

24-11

25-02

25-05

25-08

25-11

26-01

26-05

26-08

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

44.1%

Operating margin

12.3%

FCF margin

13.5%

Net margin

10.9%

Return on equity

21.4%

Return on invested capital

18.2%

Net debt / EBITDA

0.8×

Current ratio

3.8×

Interest cover

10.6×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.6×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 7.1 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$513

+49%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$347–$660

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$4.8B	$123.3M	$665.3M
2024	$4.0B	$84.0M	$377.9M
2023	$4.4B	$254.8M	$62.1M
2022	$3.6B	$152.9M	$-258.6M
2021	$3.6B	$500.2M	$462.1M
2020	$3.5B	$361.3M	$411.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +9.5%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-12-10 · before open · EPS est 2.08

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-09-03	1.73	2.11	+22.1%
2026-06-04	1.46	1.64	+12.3%
2026-03-05	1.17	1.35	+15.6%
2025-12-11	0.77	0.91	+18.2%
2025-09-04	0.53	0.67	+27.6%
2025-06-05	0.52	0.42	-18.9%
2025-03-11	0.41	0.64	+54.7%
2024-12-12	0.65	0.54	-17.5%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-07-31	$1.7B	+37.0%
2026-04-30	$1.6B	–
2026-01-31	$1.4B	–
2025-10-31	$1.4B	–
2025-07-31	$1.2B	–

Analyst actions

Bernstein

2026-09-30 · init

→ Outperform
PT $440

Evercore ISI Group

2026-09-21 · up

In-Line → Outperform
PT $550

Barclays

2026-09-17 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $548

Rosenblatt

2026-09-17 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $525

Morgan Stanley

2026-09-17 · main

Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $450

Needham

2026-09-17 · reit

Buy → Buy
PT $520

Insider trades

Rothenstein David M

EVP & Chief Strategy Officer · 2026-10-15

SELL
$870.2K

Smith Gary B

Director, President & CEO · 2026-10-15

SELL
$1.0M

Gage Brodie

EVP & Chief Product & Tech · 2026-10-15

SELL
$412.9K

Diperna Dino

EVP & Chief R&D Officer · 2026-10-15

SELL
$153.1K

Diperna Dino

EVP & Chief R&D Officer · 2026-10-15

SELL
$155.8K

Smith Gary B

Director, President & CEO · 2026-10-01

SELL
$1.1M

Graff Marc D.

EVP & Chief Financial Officer · 2026-10-01

SELL
$34.5K

Kosaraju Sheela

EVP & Chief Legal Officer · 2026-10-01

SELL
$746.3K

Phipps Jason

EVP & Chief Customer Officer · 2026-10-01

SELL
$933.8K

Cumello Joseph

EVP & General Mgr. · 2026-09-25

SELL
$568.6K

Claflin Bruce L.

Director · 2026-09-24

SELL
$1.0M

Nevens Thomas Michael

Director · 2026-09-23

SELL
$1.3M

Research

Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expect2026-10-18

News

Networking Stocks Rally as Tech Rebound Lifts AI Gear Makers: Ciena and Arista Climb 4%, but Cisco Barely Moves

24/7 Wall St. · 7h ago

Taiwan Semiconductor Q3 Earnings & Revenues Top Estimates, Margins Up

Zacks · Oct 15

Here's Why You Should Hold DOCU Stock in Your Portfolio Now

Zacks · Oct 14

BofA sets massive $10 billion Ciena backlog target

TheStreet · Oct 13

Ciena's revenue could grow up to 40% as AI demand outstrips supply, says Bank of America

Proactive · Oct 13

Coherent Stock Falls Nearly 8% as Ciena and Lumentum Drop About 10%. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go by 2031

TIKR · Oct 13

Lumentum Stock Falls Nearly 10% as Optics Stocks Slide in a Sector-Wide Selloff . Here’s Where the Stock Could Go by 2032

TIKR · Oct 13

Ciena Insider Sold Shares Worth $1,091,238, According to a Recent SEC Filing

MT Newswires · Oct 13

Lumentum’s Massive Backlog and Demand Justify Buying at Today’s Price

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 13

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:46:58 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Hypothetical research for education, not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance (via yfinance, delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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