COHR · Coteau

COHR

Coherent Corp.

$232.02

-0.38% 2026-10-19

Information TechnologyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

COHRSPY

-19.4%

-26.9%

-18.7%

-33.2%

YTD

+25.7%

+99.4%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

86th pct in sector

A-

12-1 return: +118.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

78th pct in sector

B+

Revenue growth (YoY): +33.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

39th pct in sector

C-

Forward E/P: 6.0% · EBITDA/EV: 3.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

43rd pct in sector

Profit margin: +11.3% · Return on equity: +8.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Top 15.

Momentum Top 15

6.7% of the book · rank 11 of 499

Held Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Momentum Top 15 #11 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +157.9% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 11th of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 16th.

Key stats

Market cap$45.7B

P/E (trailing)56.3

P/E (forward)16.5

52-week range112.96 – 440.00

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+33.7%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (23)

Mean price target$405.22 (+75%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

No cash-flow valuation

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).

•Forward P/E vs sector16.5x vs median 16.9x

•Piotroski F-score5/9

▲Altman Z4.7 (safe)

•Net debt / EBITDA2.0x

▲Analyst target+75% (23 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (FY to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 2.11 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)

sector median 35.9× · 75th pct

56.3×
pricier

Forward P/E

sector median 16.9× · 48th pct

16.5×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 20.8× · 92nd pct

75.9×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 4.6× · 64th pct

6.4×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 5.1× · 42nd pct

4.2×
cheaper

FCF yield

sector median 3.5% · 3rd pct

-2.2%
pricier

Forward EPS $14.05 vs trailing $4.12 (+241% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

37.5%

Operating margin

1.4%

FCF margin

-14.4%

Net margin

11.3%

Return on equity

7.4%

Return on invested capital

0.7%

Net debt / EBITDA

2.0×

Current ratio

2.4×

Interest cover

0.3×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

0.1×

Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.7 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$405

+75%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$275–$500

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2026	$7.1B	$805.0M	$-1.0B
2025	$5.8B	$49.4M	$192.8M
2024	$4.7B	$-156.2M	$198.9M
2023	$5.2B	$-259.5M	$198.0M
2022	$3.3B	$234.8M	$99.0M
2021	$3.1B	$297.6M	$428.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +11.3%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-04 · during market · EPS est 1.96

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-12	1.62	1.74	+7.6%
2026-05-06	1.39	1.41	+1.1%
2026-02-04	1.21	1.29	+6.8%
2025-11-05	1.04	1.16	+11.3%
2025-08-13	0.92	1.00	+8.7%
2025-05-07	0.86	0.91	+6.2%
2025-02-05	0.67	0.95	+41.0%
2024-11-06	0.61	0.74	+20.5%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$2.0B	+33.7%
2026-03-31	$1.8B	–
2025-12-31	$1.7B	–
2025-09-30	$1.6B	–
2025-06-30	$1.5B	–

Analyst actions

B. Riley Securities

2026-10-15 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $297

Rosenblatt

2026-10-13 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $500

Bernstein

2026-09-30 · init

→ Outperform
PT $350

Rosenblatt

2026-09-24 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $500

Deutsche Bank

2026-09-01 · init

Buy → Buy
PT $400

Jefferies

2026-08-13 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $420

Insider trades

Digirolomo Enrico

Director · 2026-09-11

SELL
$1.6M

Beard Robert P

Chief Strategy & Legal Officer · 2026-09-09

SELL
$154.7K

Neal-Graves Lisa

Director · 2026-09-02

SELL
$590.5K

Eng Julie Sheridan

Chief Technology Officer · 2026-09-01

SELL
$1.6M

Digirolomo Enrico

Director · 2026-08-31

SELL
$629.0K

Skaggs Stephen A

Director · 2026-08-31

SELL
$629.1K

Eng Julie Sheridan

Chief Technology Officer · 2026-08-31

SELL
$2.0M

Luther Sherri R

Chief Financial Officer · 2026-08-18

SELL
$972.0K

Luther Sherri R

Chief Financial Officer · 2026-07-22

SELL
$306.7K

None

None · None

SELL
–

None

None · None

SELL
–

None

None · None

SELL
–

Research

Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expect2026-10-18

News

Why is Coherent stock sliding today?

Investing.com · 17m ago

Optics Stocks Rally Ahead of Earnings: Applied Optoelectronics Jumps 5%, Lumentum Adds 4%, Coherent Rises 2%

24/7 Wall St. · 20h ago

Martin Shkreli Says New Photonic Chips Could Run Circles Around Nvidia

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 17

Chip Stocks Continue Downward Streak, 'Pricing In A Crash'

Investor's Business Daily · Oct 16

Why Applied Optoelectronics Stock Plummeted This Week

Motley Fool · Oct 16

Chip Stocks Tumble On AI Investment Worries

Investor's Business Daily · Oct 15

Is Coherent (COHR) Using Its AI Capacity Buildout And TSX CDR Listing To Redefine Its Edge?

Simply Wall St. · Oct 15

Top Midday Decliners

MT Newswires · Oct 15

CRDO vs. COHR: Which AI Connectivity Stock Is the Better Buy?

Zacks · Oct 15

Coherent Has Massively Diappointed Investors for 6 Months: A Respected Analyst Predicts It Will Double Moving Forward

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 15

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:46:59 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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