COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
$995.53
+0.65% 2026-10-19
Consumer StaplesS&P 500
COSTSPY
1W
+3.8%
1M
+11.2%
3M
+6.6%
6M
+0.1%
YTD
+16.0%
1Y
+6.9%
Grades vs sector
Momentum50th pct in sectorC+
Momentum
50th pct in sector
12-1 return: +0.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth81st pct in sectorA-
Growth
81st pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +11.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value3rd pct in sectorF
Value
3rd pct in sector
Forward E/P: 2.5% · EBITDA/EV: 3.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability60th pct in sectorB-
Profitability
60th pct in sector
Profit margin: +3.0% · Return on equity: +28.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
rank 311 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 2.6
Quality Growthrank 52 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.7
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$441.1B
P/E (trailing)48.0
P/E (forward)39.8
52-week range844.06 – 1,096.50
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+11.1%
Dividend yield0.59%
Analyst consensusBuy (36)
Mean price target$1,066.06 (+7%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Looks expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -3 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 44%
▼Forward P/E vs sector39.8x vs median 14.5x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z9.3 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-1.1x
•Analyst target+7% (36 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
Bear
$359
-64%
growth 4% · disc. 9.6% · term. 2.0%
Base
$561
-44%
growth 9% · disc. 8.6% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$856
-14%
growth 12% · disc. 7.6% · term. 3.0%
A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 16% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+16%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+12%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+12%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+8%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 9.4B, 8.6% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (FY to 2026-08-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.87 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Staples
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 23.5× · 88th pct
48.0×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 14.5× · 99th pct
39.8×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.9× · 97th pct
29.7×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.1× · 57th pct
1.5×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 3.1× · 94th pct
12.3×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.5% · 12th pct
2.1%pricier
Forward EPS $25.02 vs trailing $20.76 (+21% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
5.4%
Operating margin
3.9%
FCF margin
3.1%
Net margin
3.0%
Return on equity
25.8%
Return on invested capital
42.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.1×
Current ratio
1.1×
Interest cover
80.6×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.7×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 9.3 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$1,066
+7%
Analysts
36
Buy
Range
$770–$1,315
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $303.2B | $9.2B | $9.4B |
| 2025 | $275.2B | $8.1B | $7.8B |
| 2024 | $254.5B | $7.4B | $6.6B |
| 2023 | $242.3B | $6.3B | $6.7B |
| 2022 | $227.0B | $5.8B | $3.5B |
| 2021 | $195.9B | $5.0B | $5.4B |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +7.8%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-12-10 · during market · EPS est 4.91
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 6.53 | 6.75 | +3.4% |
| 2026-05-28 | 4.97 | 4.93 | -0.9% |
| 2026-03-05 | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.7% |
| 2025-12-11 | 4.27 | 4.50 | +5.5% |
| 2025-09-25 | 5.80 | 5.87 | +1.1% |
| 2025-05-29 | 4.23 | 4.28 | +1.2% |
| 2025-03-06 | 4.10 | 4.02 | -1.9% |
| 2024-12-12 | 3.80 | 4.04 | +6.4% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | $70.5B | +11.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | $69.6B | – |
| 2025-11-30 | $67.3B | – |
| 2025-08-31 | $86.2B | – |
| 2025-05-31 | $63.2B | – |
Analyst actions
Tigress Financial
PT $1,250
2026-10-15 · main
Buy → BuyPT $1,250
RBC Capital
PT $1,000
2026-10-09 · reit
Sector Perform → Sector PerformPT $1,000
Deutsche Bank
PT $1,079
2026-09-28 · main
Buy → BuyPT $1,079
Argus Research
PT $1,230
2026-09-28 · reit
Buy → BuyPT $1,230
Freedom Broker
PT $1,010
2026-09-25 · main
Buy → BuyPT $1,010
Raymond James
PT $1,050
2026-09-25 · main
Outperform → OutperformPT $1,050
Recent dividends
2026-07-24: $1.470 · 2026-05-01: $1.470 · 2026-01-30: $1.300 · 2025-10-31: $1.300 · 2025-08-01: $1.300 · 2025-05-02: $1.300 · 2025-02-07: $1.160 · 2024-11-01: $1.160
Insider trades
Wilcox William Richard
$1.1M
Executive Vice President · 2026-10-13
SELL$1.1M
Frates Caton
$733.3K
Sr. Executive Vice President · 2026-09-29
SELL$733.3K
Adamo Claudine
$2.0M
Executive Vice President · 2026-09-29
SELL$2.0M
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News
Costco is One of the Best Retailers on the Planet
Nasdaq · 2h ago
What Changed In Home Depot's Story?
Trefis · 7h ago
Walmart Dropped 5% In The Last 6 Months: This Wall Street Firm Says 30% Gains Are Coming Soon
24/7 Wall St. · 13h ago
What State Street Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) Bought: Walmart Leads on Oct. 15
GuruFocus.com · 17h ago
Costco (COST) vs. Walmart (WMT): Which Retailing Giant Has a Wider Moat?
Insider Monkey · Oct 18
2 Retail Stocks to Buy Before the Holiday Shopping Season
Motley Fool · Oct 18
Discount grocery chain closing all stores as bargain grocers struggle
TheStreet · Oct 17
Should You Pick Walmart Stock Over Its Competitors?
Trefis · Oct 16
Fundamental and Technicals Signals Align for Costco: Is the Stock Finally Breaking Out?
Nasdaq · Oct 16
Is COST a Buy as Strong Growth Meets a Premium Earnings Valuation?
Zacks · Oct 16
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:47:15 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.