CVCO
Cavco Industries, Inc.
$510.97
-2.11% 2026-10-19
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 600
CVCOSPY
1W
-2.9%
1M
-3.8%
3M
-9.9%
6M
-5.4%
YTD
-13.5%
1Y
-7.9%
Grades vs sector
Momentum65th pct in sectorB
Momentum
65th pct in sector
12-1 return: +5.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth77th pct in sectorB+
Growth
77th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +9.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value28th pct in sectorD+
Value
28th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 5.5% · EBITDA/EV: 6.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability56th pct in sectorC+
Profitability
56th pct in sector
Profit margin: +7.9% · Return on equity: +16.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$3.9B
P/E (trailing)22.2
P/E (forward)17.7
52-week range443.34 – 713.01
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+9.5%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusNone (4)
Mean price target$665.00 (+30%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 26%
▼Forward P/E vs sector17.7x vs median 13.4x
▲Piotroski F-score8/9
▲Altman Z9.1 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-1.1x
▲Analyst target+30% (4 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Homebuilding profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.2B, a 10% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2017–FY2026 (10 years: 7.7%) times current revenue = 0.2B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $489; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $378. Glossary
Bear
$261
-49%
growth 1% · disc. 11.6% · term. 2.0%
Base
$378
-26%
growth 6% · disc. 10.6% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$524
+3%
growth 9% · disc. 9.6% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 7.7% average margin × current revenue = 0.2B (last 12 months: 0.2B at a 10% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $489.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 9% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+9%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+3%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+21%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+2%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+15%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.2B, 10.6% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-27). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.27 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 67th pct
22.2×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 71st pct
17.7×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.3× · 71st pct
14.9×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 62nd pct
1.7×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 2.8× · 56th pct
3.5×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.6% · 45th pct
6.0%pricier
Forward EPS $28.82 vs trailing $22.99 (+25% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
23.2%
Operating margin
9.6%
FCF margin
10.2%
Net margin
7.9%
Return on equity
16.3%
Return on invested capital
20.1%
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.1×
Current ratio
2.2×
Interest cover
434.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.6×
Piotroski F-score 8/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 9.1 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$665
+30%
Analysts
4
None
Range
$600–$720
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.2B | $190.6M | $232.1M |
| 2025 | $2.0B | $171.0M | $157.1M |
| 2024 | $1.8B | $157.8M | $207.3M |
| 2023 | $2.1B | $240.6M | $211.6M |
| 2022 | $1.6B | $197.7M | $125.6M |
| 2021 | $1.1B | $76.6M | $88.5M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +1.6%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-29 · after close · EPS est 5.38
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 5.55 | 5.43 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-21 | 5.30 | 5.42 | +2.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | 6.00 | 5.58 | -7.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | 6.05 | 6.55 | +8.3% |
| 2025-07-31 | 5.31 | 6.42 | +20.9% |
| 2025-05-22 | 4.80 | 5.40 | +12.5% |
| 2025-01-30 | 4.61 | 6.90 | +49.7% |
| 2024-10-31 | 4.85 | 5.28 | +8.9% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $550.1M | +8.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | $581.0M | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $556.5M | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $556.9M | – |
| 2025-03-31 | $508.4M | – |
Analyst actions
Oppenheimer
PT $720
2026-09-30 · init
→ OutperformPT $720
UBS
PT $700
2026-06-05 · init
→ BuyPT $700
Wedbush
PT $550
2025-05-27 · reit
Neutral → NeutralPT $550
Wedbush
PT $550
2025-02-03 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $550
Zelman & Assoc
2025-01-15 · init
→ OutperformWedbush
PT $480
2024-12-03 · down
Outperform → NeutralPT $480
Insider trades
Bigbee Paul
$202.5K
Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-08-18
SELL$202.5K
Daniels Lisa Lynn
$17.1K
Director · 2026-07-30
SELL$17.1K
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News
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:02:34 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
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