CVNA
Carvana Co.
$58.71
-0.20% 2026-10-19
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500
CVNASPY
1W
-1.3%
1M
-9.8%
3M
-8.5%
6M
-27.0%
YTD
-30.4%
1Y
-12.1%
Grades vs sector
Momentum58th pct in sectorB-
Momentum
58th pct in sector
12-1 return: +2.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth99th pct in sectorA+
Growth
99th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +52.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value12th pct in sectorD-
Value
12th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 3.8% · EBITDA/EV: 5.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability71st pct in sectorB
Profitability
71st pct in sector
Profit margin: +6.3% · Return on equity: +58.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
rank 355 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -2.6
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$65.1B
P/E (trailing)31.1
P/E (forward)26.2
52-week range54.46 – 97.38
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+52.4%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (21)
Mean price target$82.19 (+40%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
No cash-flow valuation
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼Forward P/E vs sector26.2x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Altman Z6.9 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA1.1x
▲Analyst target+40% (21 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Automotive Retail profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.9B, a 4% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: -20.1%) times current revenue = -5.0B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $54; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $–. Glossary
Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 3.55 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 82nd pct
31.1×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 92nd pct
26.2×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.3× · 97th pct
30.2×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 78th pct
2.6×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 2.8× · 91st pct
16.2×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.6% · 11th pct
1.4%pricier
Forward EPS $2.24 vs trailing $1.89 (+19% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
19.4%
Operating margin
8.9%
FCF margin
3.7%
Net margin
6.3%
Return on equity
38.9%
Return on invested capital
26.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1×
Current ratio
3.9×
Interest cover
5.3×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.7×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 6.9 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$82
+40%
Analysts
21
Buy
Range
$60–$120
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $20.3B | $1.4B | $889.0M |
| 2024 | $13.7B | $210.0M | $827.0M |
| 2023 | $10.8B | $450.0M | $716.0M |
| 2022 | $13.6B | $-1.6B | $-1.8B |
| 2021 | $12.8B | $-135.0M | $-3.2B |
| 2020 | $5.6B | $-171.0M | $-968.0M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +14.3%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-28 · after close · EPS est 0.44
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 0.38 | 0.42 | +10.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | 0.30 | 0.34 | +11.7% |
| 2026-02-18 | 0.24 | 0.84 | +259.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | 0.26 | 0.21 | -22.0% |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.21 | 0.26 | +21.6% |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.15 | 0.30 | +102.1% |
| 2025-02-19 | 0.05 | 0.12 | +128.5% |
| 2024-10-30 | 0.04 | 0.13 | +184.8% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $7.4B | +52.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | $6.4B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $5.6B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $5.6B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $4.8B | – |
Analyst actions
Morgan Stanley
PT $88
2026-10-15 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $88
BTIG
PT $87
2026-10-09 · reit
Buy → BuyPT $87
Stephens & Co.
PT $83
2026-10-06 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $83
Barclays
PT $80
2026-10-06 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $80
Oppenheimer
PT $90
2026-09-30 · main
Outperform → OutperformPT $90
BTIG
PT $87
2026-08-04 · reit
Buy → BuyPT $87
Insider trades
Taira Thomas
$363.8K
President, Special Projects · 2026-10-12
SELL$363.8K
Palmer Stephen R
$54.7K
Vice President of Accounting · 2026-10-01
SELL$54.7K
Palmer Stephen R
$51.0K
Vice President of Accounting · 2026-10-01
SELL$51.0K
Palmer Stephen R
$56.7K
Vice President of Accounting · 2026-10-01
SELL$56.7K
Palmer Stephen R
$145.7K
Vice President of Accounting · 2026-10-01
SELL$145.7K
Jenkins Mark W.
$620.6K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-10-01
SELL$620.6K
Jenkins Mark W.
$567.3K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-10-01
SELL$567.3K
Jenkins Mark W.
$818.7K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-10-01
SELL$818.7K
Jenkins Mark W.
$1.6M
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-10-01
SELL$1.6M
Jenkins Mark W.
$370.0K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-10-01
SELL$370.0K
Taira Thomas
$187.7K
President, Special Projects · 2026-09-14
SELL$187.7K
Taira Thomas
$997.2K
President, Special Projects · 2026-09-14
SELL$997.2K
News
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:02:59 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.