FICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

$781.07

+1.28% 2026-10-19

Information TechnologyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

FICOSPY

+5.6%

-17.8%

-38.2%

-26.6%

YTD

-53.8%

-51.7%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

0th pct in sector

12-1 return: -64.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

70th pct in sector

Revenue growth (YoY): +25.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

58th pct in sector

B-

Forward E/P: 6.4% · EBITDA/EV: 5.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

93rd pct in sector

Profit margin: +34.1% · Return on equity: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Quality Growth.

Quality Growth

6.7% of the book · rank 8 of 360

Held Momentum Top 15

rank 461 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -23.3

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Quality Growth #8 of 360

Qualified on ROIC 79%, revenue +24% (TTM), growth accelerating +17.2 pts, latest quarter 2026-06-30. Ranked 8th of 360 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 8th.

Key stats

Market cap$16.9B

P/E (trailing)22.6

P/E (forward)15.9

52-week range586.05 – 1,858.91

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+25.7%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (19)

Mean price target$1,017.10 (+30%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 44%

•Forward P/E vs sector15.9x vs median 16.9x

•Piotroski F-score6/9

▲Altman Z8.5 (safe)

▼Net debt / EBITDA4.3x

▲Analyst target+30% (19 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$533

-32%

growth 12% · disc. 12.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$1,122

+44%

growth 19% · disc. 11.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$1,904

+144%

growth 24% · disc. 10.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 11% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+11%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

+15%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

+18%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+13%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+9%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 1.0B, 11.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.34 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)

sector median 35.9× · 30th pct

22.6×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 16.9× · 45th pct

15.9×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 20.8× · 42nd pct

17.7×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 4.6× · 67th pct

7.0×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 5.1×

–

FCF yield

sector median 3.5% · 73rd pct

5.9%
cheaper

Forward EPS $49.22 vs trailing $34.54 (+42% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$680.4M

as of 2026-06-30

vs a year ago

+15%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.28×

coverage

24-09

24-12

25-03

25-06

25-09

25-12

26-03

26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

85.1%

Operating margin

51.7%

FCF margin

41.6%

Net margin

34.1%

Return on equity

–

Return on invested capital

76.5%

Net debt / EBITDA

4.3×

Current ratio

1.2×

Interest cover

6.6×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.2×

Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 8.5 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$1,017

+30%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$490–$1,675

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$2.0B	$651.9M	$769.9M
2024	$1.7B	$512.8M	$624.1M
2023	$1.5B	$429.4M	$464.7M
2022	$1.4B	$373.5M	$503.4M
2021	$1.3B	$392.1M	$416.2M
2020	$1.3B	$236.4M	$342.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +13.1%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-04 · during market · EPS est 10.86

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-07-29	11.78	12.18	+3.4%
2026-04-28	10.97	12.50	+13.9%
2026-01-28	7.08	7.33	+3.5%
2025-11-05	7.36	7.74	+5.2%
2025-07-30	7.70	8.57	+11.3%
2025-04-29	7.44	7.81	+4.9%
2025-02-04	6.08	5.79	-4.8%
2024-11-06	6.39	6.54	+2.4%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$674.2M	+25.7%
2026-03-31	$691.7M	–
2025-12-31	$512.0M	–
2025-09-30	$515.8M	–
2025-06-30	$536.4M	–

Analyst actions

Mizuho

2026-10-19 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $1,063

RBC Capital

2026-10-16 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $1,045

Raymond James

2026-10-13 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $1,230

Needham

2026-10-13 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $1,100

Wells Fargo

2026-10-05 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $800

Barclays

2026-10-02 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $875

Recent dividends

2017-03-01: $0.020 · 2016-11-30: $0.020 · 2016-09-12: $0.020 · 2016-05-23: $0.020 · 2016-03-07: $0.020 · 2015-11-30: $0.020 · 2015-09-14: $0.020 · 2015-05-22: $0.020

Insider trades

Manolis Eva

Director · 2026-07-29

SELL
$1.4M

None

None · None

SELL
–

None

None · None

SELL
–

News

Mizuho Adjusts Price Target on Fair Isaac to $1,063 From $1,344

MT Newswires · 15h ago

FICO Stock Rose 16% Last Week With No News. The Street’s Targets Fell 18%.

TIKR · 21h ago

RBC Cuts Price Target on Fair Isaac to $1,045 From $1,525, Keeps Outperform Rating

MT Newswires · Oct 16

Is Autodesk Still The Best Way To Own Faster Software Growth?

Trefis · Oct 15

Independent Industry Experts Named to Judge 2027 FICO Decision Awards

Business Wire · Oct 14

Should You Sell Your Fair Isaac Stock Now?

Trefis · Oct 13

Fair Isaac (FICO) Could Be 41% Undervalued Following UWM’s FICO Score Commitment

Simply Wall St. · Oct 13

Regulatory Tussle Masks Fair Isaac Corp’s (FICO) Record Quarter

Insider Monkey · Oct 13

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:47:12 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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