FIX

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.

$1,464.07

+1.74% 2026-10-19

IndustrialsS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

FIXSPY

-10.6%

-11.3%

-14.4%

-12.8%

YTD

+57.1%

+77.2%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

95th pct in sector

A+

12-1 return: +71.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

95th pct in sector

Revenue growth (YoY): +50.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

16th pct in sector

Forward E/P: 4.2% · EBITDA/EV: 4.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

83rd pct in sector

A-

Profit margin: +12.8% · Return on equity: +55.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Quality Growth.

Quality Growth

6.7% of the book · rank 5 of 360

Held Momentum Top 15

rank 27 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 87.7

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Quality Growth #5 of 360

Qualified on ROIC 103%, revenue +46% (TTM), growth accelerating +14.9 pts, latest quarter 2026-06-30. Ranked 5th of 360 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 5th.

Key stats

Market cap$51.5B

P/E (trailing)36.0

P/E (forward)24.3

52-week range770.47 – 2,073.99

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+50.3%

Dividend yield0.25%

Analyst consensusStrong Buy (8)

Mean price target$2,198.88 (+50%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Looks undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 76%

▼Forward P/E vs sector24.3x vs median 17.1x

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

▲Altman Z8.6 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.9x

▲Analyst target+50% (8 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$1,259

-14%

growth 18% · disc. 13.5% · term. 2.0%

Base

$2,570

+76%

growth 30% · disc. 12.5% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$4,374

+199%

growth 38% · disc. 11.5% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 14% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+14%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

+60%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

+31%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+30%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+26%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 2.2B, 12.5% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.66 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)

sector median 26.4× · 76th pct

36.0×
pricier

Forward P/E

sector median 17.1× · 81st pct

24.3×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 14.8× · 90th pct

26.0×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 2.1× · 80th pct

4.6×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 3.5× · 95th pct

16.0×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 4.5% · 45th pct

4.2%
pricier

Forward EPS $60.22 vs trailing $40.64 (+48% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$1.2B

as of 2018-09-30

vs a year ago

–

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.11×

coverage

18-03

18-06

18-09

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

25.7%

Operating margin

16.5%

FCF margin

19.2%

Net margin

12.8%

Return on equity

44.6%

Return on invested capital

101.9%

Net debt / EBITDA

-0.9×

Current ratio

1.2×

Interest cover

196.7×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.8×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 8.6 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$2,199

+50%

Analysts

Strong Buy

Range

$1,910–$2,500

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$9.1B	$1.0B	$1.0B
2024	$7.0B	$522.4M	$738.0M
2023	$5.2B	$323.4M	$544.7M
2022	$4.1B	$245.9M	$253.2M
2021	$3.1B	$143.3M	$157.8M
2020	$2.9B	$150.1M	$262.4M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +30.0%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-22 · after close · EPS est 12.85

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-07-23	10.46	12.53	+19.9%
2026-04-23	6.81	10.51	+54.4%
2026-02-19	6.75	9.37	+38.7%
2025-10-23	6.29	8.25	+31.3%
2025-07-24	4.84	6.53	+35.0%
2025-04-24	3.71	4.75	+28.1%
2025-02-20	3.67	4.08	+11.1%
2024-10-24	3.99	4.09	+2.4%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$3.3B	+50.3%
2026-03-31	$2.9B	–
2025-12-31	$2.6B	–
2025-09-30	$2.5B	–
2025-06-30	$2.2B	–

Analyst actions

Keybanc

2026-10-15 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $2,125

DA Davidson

2026-08-21 · init

→ Buy
PT $2,100

UBS

2026-07-27 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $2,225

Keybanc

2026-07-27 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $2,110

Goldman Sachs

2026-07-09 · init

→ Buy
PT $2,159

UBS

2026-06-08 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $2,125

Recent dividends

2026-08-13: $0.900 · 2026-05-15: $0.800 · 2026-03-06: $0.700 · 2025-11-13: $0.600 · 2025-08-14: $0.500 · 2025-05-16: $0.450 · 2025-03-10: $0.400 · 2024-11-14: $0.350

Insider trades

Lane Brian E.

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF. · 2026-08-26

SELL
$25.8M

George William Iii

CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER · 2026-08-17

SELL
$4.7M

Myers Franklin

Director · 2026-08-11

SELL
$6.8M

Myers Franklin

Director · 2026-08-10

SELL
$5.9M

News

FRN Variable Rate Fix

Business Wire · 11h ago

FRN Variable Rate Fix

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FRN Variable Rate Fix

Business Wire · 11h ago

FRN Variable Rate Fix

Business Wire · 11h ago

FRN Variable Rate Fix

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FRN Variable Rate Fix

Business Wire · 11h ago

FRN Variable Rate Fix

Business Wire · 11h ago

FRN Variable Rate Fix

Business Wire · 11h ago

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:47:11 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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