LEN
Lennar Corporation
$75.87
-1.57% 2026-10-19
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500
LENSPY
1W
+1.6%
1M
-0.1%
3M
-7.9%
6M
-17.9%
YTD
-24.5%
1Y
-38.3%
Grades vs sector
Momentum13th pct in sectorD-
Momentum
13th pct in sector
12-1 return: -33.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth6th pct in sectorF
Growth
6th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): -8.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value45th pct in sectorC
Value
45th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 6.8% · EBITDA/EV: 8.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability29th pct in sectorD+
Profitability
29th pct in sector
Profit margin: +4.1% · Return on equity: +6.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
rank 477 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -31.9
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$18.0B
P/E (trailing)14.4
P/E (forward)14.5
52-week range71.78 – 133.76
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)-8.7%
Dividend yield2.59%
Analyst consensusUnderperform (15)
Mean price target$77.87 (+3%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)below the price by 2%
•Forward P/E vs sector14.5x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▲Altman Z3.4 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.7x
•Analyst target+3% (15 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Homebuilding profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.8B, a 3% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 8.3%) times current revenue = 2.6B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $10; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $74. Glossary
Bear
$45
-41%
growth -9% · disc. 12.1% · term. 2.0%
Base
$74
-2%
growth -4% · disc. 11.1% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$110
+44%
growth -1% · disc. 10.1% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 8.3% average margin × current revenue = 2.6B (last 12 months: 0.8B at a 3% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $10.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -2% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-2%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-79%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
-63%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 2.6B, 11.1% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.38 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
cheaper
sector median 17.7× · 30th pct
14.4×cheaper
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 57th pct
14.5×pricier
EV / EBITDA
cheaper
sector median 11.3× · 0th pct
3.8×cheaper
Price / sales
cheaper
sector median 1.2× · 28th pct
0.6×cheaper
Price / book
cheaper
sector median 2.8× · 9th pct
0.8×cheaper
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.6% · 37th pct
4.5%pricier
Forward EPS $5.22 vs trailing $5.28 (-1% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
–
Operating margin
18.3%
FCF margin
2.5%
Net margin
4.1%
Return on equity
6.1%
Return on invested capital
16.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7×
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
1,261.7×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.7×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 3.4 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$78
+3%
Analysts
15
Underperform
Range
$63–$120
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $34.2B | $2.1B | $28.2M |
| 2024 | $35.4B | $3.9B | $2.2B |
| 2023 | $34.2B | $3.9B | $5.1B |
| 2022 | $33.7B | $4.6B | $3.2B |
| 2021 | $27.1B | $4.4B | $2.5B |
| 2020 | $22.5B | $2.5B | $4.1B |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +0.5%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-12-15 · during market · EPS est 1.44
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 1.29 | 1.23 | -4.5% |
| 2026-06-11 | 1.23 | 1.31 | +6.2% |
| 2026-03-12 | 0.95 | 0.88 | -7.2% |
| 2025-12-16 | 2.18 | 2.03 | -6.8% |
| 2025-09-18 | 2.09 | 2.00 | -4.5% |
| 2025-06-16 | 1.94 | 1.90 | -2.0% |
| 2025-03-20 | 1.71 | 2.14 | +24.9% |
| 2024-12-18 | 4.12 | 4.03 | -2.3% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | $7.9B | -5.2% |
| 2026-02-28 | $6.6B | – |
| 2025-11-30 | $9.4B | – |
| 2025-08-31 | $8.8B | – |
| 2025-05-31 | $8.4B | – |
Analyst actions
Wells Fargo
PT $75
2026-10-07 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-WeightPT $75
Melius Research
PT $72
2026-10-06 · init
→ SellPT $72
Morgan Stanley
PT $65
2026-10-01 · init
→ UnderweightPT $65
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
PT $75
2026-09-22 · main
Underperform → UnderperformPT $75
Citigroup
PT $85
2026-09-21 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $85
RBC Capital
PT $69
2026-09-18 · main
Underperform → UnderperformPT $69
Recent dividends
2026-10-07: $0.500 · 2026-07-10: $0.500 · 2026-04-22: $0.500 · 2026-02-04: $0.500 · 2025-10-10: $0.500 · 2025-07-03: $0.500 · 2025-04-23: $0.500 · 2025-01-29: $0.500
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News
Is Cavco Industries Stock Engineered To Make You Money?
Trefis · 15h ago
Warren Buffett's Berkshire raises stake in Lennar amid slowing housing demand
TheStreet · 17h ago
Warren Buffett Just Put $600 Million Into This Stock As America Marches Into the Weakest Housing Market In Years
24/7 Wall St. · 22h ago
3 US Homebuilder Stocks Built To Handle High Mortgage Rates
Simply Wall St. · 22h ago
Title Resources Group Appoints Robert Greenbaum as Executive Vice President
PR Newswire · 22h ago
The US housing market just took a turn: Unusual home sales trigger alarm — and a big lawsuit. Is your nest egg exposed?
Moneywise · Oct 17
Why Is Lennar (LEN) Down 2.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks · Oct 16
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MarketWatch · Oct 16
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Simply Wall St. · Oct 16
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StockStory · Oct 16
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:02:06 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.