LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

$834.51

+1.26% 2026-10-19

Information TechnologyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

LITESPY

-16.2%

-10.4%

+9.0%

-6.8%

YTD

+126.4%

+406.5%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

99th pct in sector

A+

12-1 return: +381.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

98th pct in sector

A+

Revenue growth (YoY): +109.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

19th pct in sector

Forward E/P: 4.4% · EBITDA/EV: 1.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

0th pct in sector

Profit margin: -230.1% · Return on equity: -240.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Top 15.

Momentum Top 15

6.7% of the book · rank 3 of 499

Held Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Momentum Top 15 #3 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +462.2% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 3rd of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 3rd.

Key stats

Market cap$75.6B

P/E (trailing)–

P/E (forward)23.2

52-week range152.54 – 1,143.00

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+109.3%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusStrong Buy (26)

Mean price target$1,179.07 (+41%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans expensive

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 83%

▼Forward P/E vs sector23.2x vs median 16.9x

•Piotroski F-score5/9

▲Altman Z16.5 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA0.9x

▲Analyst target+41% (26 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$64

-92%

growth 18% · disc. 12.9% · term. 2.0%

Base

$142

-83%

growth 30% · disc. 11.9% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$251

-70%

growth 38% · disc. 10.9% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 49% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+49%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

+80%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

-14%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+19%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+12%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.3B, 11.9% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (FY to 2026-06-27). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.54 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)

sector median 35.9×

–

Forward P/E

sector median 16.9× · 70th pct

23.2×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 20.8× · 96th pct

145.0×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 4.6× · 97th pct

25.1×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 5.1× · 87th pct

16.3×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 3.5% · 10th pct

0.4%
pricier

Forward EPS $36.02 vs trailing $-92.96. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$426.6M

as of 2021-04-03

vs a year ago

-22%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.14×

coverage

19-06

19-09

19-12

20-03

20-06

20-09

20-12

21-04

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

41.7%

Operating margin

17.4%

FCF margin

10.0%

Net margin

-230.1%

Return on equity

-149.3%

Return on invested capital

10.2%

Net debt / EBITDA

0.9×

Current ratio

1.7×

Interest cover

24.1×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

–

Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years

✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 16.5 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$1,179

+41%

Analysts

Strong Buy

Range

$820–$1,500

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2026	$3.0B	$-6.9B	$300.1M
2025	$1.6B	$25.9M	$-104.7M
2024	$1.4B	$-546.5M	$-108.3M
2023	$1.8B	$-131.6M	$51.3M
2022	$1.7B	$198.9M	$368.1M
2021	$1.7B	$397.3M	$653.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +19.5%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-05 · during market · EPS est 4.21

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-11	2.97	3.23	+8.8%
2026-05-05	2.27	2.37	+4.6%
2026-02-03	1.41	1.67	+18.6%
2025-11-04	1.03	1.10	+7.0%
2025-08-12	0.81	0.88	+8.9%
2025-05-06	0.50	0.57	+13.7%
2025-02-06	0.36	0.42	+17.0%
2024-11-07	0.12	0.18	+48.0%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$1.0B	+109.3%
2026-03-31	$808.4M	–
2025-12-31	$665.5M	–
2025-09-30	$533.8M	–
2025-06-30	$480.7M	–

Analyst actions

Rosenblatt

2026-10-05 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $1,300

Stifel

2026-10-05 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $1,232

Bernstein

2026-09-30 · init

→ Outperform
PT $1,220

Citigroup

2026-09-28 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $1,400

Rosenblatt

2026-09-23 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $1,300

Deutsche Bank

2026-09-01 · init

→ Buy
PT $1,200

Insider trades

Ali Wajid

EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER · 2026-10-01

SELL
$25.7M

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-29

SELL
$290.1K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-28

SELL
$474.2K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-25

SELL
$467.9K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-24

SELL
$460.5K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-23

SELL
$473.3K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-22

SELL
$467.8K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-21

SELL
$479.6K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-18

SELL
$460.0K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-17

SELL
$466.7K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-16

SELL
$428.4K

Wupen Yuen

PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-15

SELL
$420.8K

Research

Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expect2026-10-18

News

Last Week’s Stock Market Losers Are Bouncing Back—With CoreWeave an Exception

Barrons.com · 9h ago

Why Did Lumentum Stock Fall?

Trefis · 11h ago

Optics Stocks Rally Ahead of Earnings: Applied Optoelectronics Jumps 5%, Lumentum Adds 4%, Coherent Rises 2%

24/7 Wall St. · 11h ago

Arm vs. Lumentum: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Nasdaq · 15h ago

3 AI Stocks With Earnings Growth Of Up To 98%

Simply Wall St. · Oct 17

Martin Shkreli Says New Photonic Chips Could Run Circles Around Nvidia

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 17

Cisco Systems Heads 3 AI Infrastructure Stocks To Watch

Simply Wall St. · Oct 16

Why Applied Optoelectronics Stock Plummeted This Week

Motley Fool · Oct 16

Lumentum Is Sold Out Through 2029. Wedbush Thinks That Could Be Bullish for GlobalFoundries. Is It?

Barchart · Oct 16

Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Lumentum’s Report

Barchart · Oct 16

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:46:56 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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