MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$473.69

-0.92% 2026-10-19

EnergyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

MPCSPY

+3.2%

+11.5%

+50.6%

+122.7%

YTD

+194.6%

+161.1%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

93rd pct in sector

12-1 return: +106.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

80th pct in sector

A-

Revenue growth (YoY): +53.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

56th pct in sector

B-

Forward E/P: 11.7% · EBITDA/EV: 9.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

63rd pct in sector

B-

Profit margin: +5.5% · Return on equity: +42.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Quality Growth.

Quality Growth

6.7% of the book · rank 9 of 360

Held Momentum Top 15

rank 23 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 96.9

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Quality Growth #9 of 360

Qualified on ROIC 83%, revenue +15% (TTM), growth accelerating +32.4 pts, latest quarter 2026-06-30. Ranked 9th of 360 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 9th.

Key stats

Market cap$133.0B

P/E (trailing)16.4

P/E (forward)8.4

52-week range161.93 – 493.69

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+53.7%

Dividend yield0.84%

Analyst consensusBuy (18)

Mean price target$442.33 (-7%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Looks undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 234%

▲Forward P/E vs sector8.4x vs median 13.6x

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

▲Altman Z4.0 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.3x

▼Analyst target-7% (18 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins

Bear

$733

+55%

growth 13% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$1,581

+234%

growth 22% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$3,226

+581%

growth 28% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 4.1% average margin × current revenue = 6.2B (last 12 months: 12.9B at a 8% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $3,254.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 1% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+1%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

-30%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

n/a

Revenue, last 3 yrs

-9%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+14%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 6.2B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.54 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)

sector median 17.7× · 44th pct

16.4×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 13.6× · 15th pct

8.4×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 8.1× · 45th pct

7.4×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 2.2× · 14th pct

0.9×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 1.9× · 93rd pct

7.0×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 7.7% · 62nd pct

9.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $56.70 vs trailing $28.88 (+96% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

12.5%

Operating margin

9.2%

FCF margin

8.4%

Net margin

5.6%

Return on equity

44.8%

Return on invested capital

78.0%

Net debt / EBITDA

-0.3×

Current ratio

1.3×

Interest cover

8.7×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

2.0×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.0 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$442

-7%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$236–$560

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$132.7B	$4.0B	$4.8B
2024	$138.9B	$3.4B	$6.1B
2023	$148.4B	$9.7B	$12.2B
2022	$177.5B	$14.5B	$13.9B
2021	$120.0B	$9.7B	$2.9B
2020	$69.8B	$-9.8B	$-368.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -9.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-03 · before open · EPS est 25.35

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-04	13.95	17.73	+27.1%
2026-05-05	0.75	1.65	+120.6%
2026-02-03	2.71	4.07	+50.1%
2025-11-04	3.16	3.01	-4.9%
2025-08-05	3.22	3.96	+23.0%
2025-05-06	-0.54	-0.24	+55.8%
2025-02-04	0.02	0.77	+3730.9%
2024-11-05	1.09	1.87	+71.9%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$52.0B	+53.8%
2026-03-31	$34.2B	–
2025-12-31	$32.6B	–
2025-09-30	$34.8B	–
2025-06-30	$33.8B	–

Analyst actions

Wells Fargo

2026-10-14 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $560

Citigroup

2026-10-13 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $518

Barclays

2026-10-12 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $488

Evercore ISI Group

2026-10-12 · main

In-Line → In-Line
PT $420

Mizuho

2026-10-08 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $457

B of A Securities

2026-10-02 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $426

Recent dividends

2026-08-19: $1.000 · 2026-05-20: $1.000 · 2026-02-18: $1.000 · 2025-11-19: $1.000 · 2025-08-20: $0.910 · 2025-05-21: $0.910 · 2025-02-19: $0.910 · 2024-11-20: $0.910

Insider trades

Lyon Shawn M

SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC · 2026-08-31

SELL
$375.8K

Lyon Shawn M

SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC · 2026-08-28

SELL
$156.6K

Brzezinski Erin M

VP and Controller · 2026-08-27

SELL
$206.8K

Benson Molly R

Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec · 2026-08-17

SELL
$2.6M

Benson Molly R

Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec · 2026-08-17

SELL
$1.8M

Benson Molly R

Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec · 2026-08-17

SELL
$1.8M

Lyon Shawn M

SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC · 2026-08-13

SELL
$875.0K

Henschen Michael A Ii

Ex VP, Refining · 2026-08-12

SELL
$2.1M

None

None · None

SELL
–

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24/7 Wall St. · 14h ago

BMO Capital Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $535 From $455

MT Newswires · 16h ago

Raymond James Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $560 From $445

MT Newswires · 17h ago

3 US Refining Stocks To Watch As Higher Fuel Costs Keep Margins In Focus

Simply Wall St. · Oct 17

Marathon Petroleum Earnings Preview: What to Expect

Barchart · Oct 17

Halfway Through October, Diesel Is Setting the Terms for the Entire Energy Market

CNW Group · Oct 16

iShares Russell Mid-Cap (IWR) Buys $1.7 Million More Marathon Petroleum on Oct. 14

GuruFocus.com · Oct 16

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors

Zacks · Oct 15

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:01:37 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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