MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

$226.89

+4.07% 2026-10-19

Health CareS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

MRNASPY

+6.2%

+47.3%

+281.4%

+315.6%

YTD

+669.4%

+772.3%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

100th pct in sector

A+

12-1 return: +609.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

18th pct in sector

Revenue growth (YoY): +2.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

no data

–

Forward E/P: – · EBITDA/EV: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

3rd pct in sector

Profit margin: -141.4% · Return on equity: -39.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 2 of 3 live models: Momentum Top 15, Momentum Blend.

Momentum Top 15

6.7% of the book · rank 4 of 499

Held Momentum Blend

5.4% of the book · Leaders sleeve

Held Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Why it's in Momentum Top 15 #4 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +443.3% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 4th of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 2nd.

Why it's in Momentum Blend

In the Leaders sleeve: a fast grower breaking out near its highs after an earnings-style gap.

What would knock it out: Exits if it closes below its stop of $113.32; last close $226.89, 100% above it.

Key stats

Market cap$90.6B

P/E (trailing)–

P/E (forward)-51.2

52-week range22.28 – 242.29

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+2.1%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusHold (18)

Mean price target$123.61 (-46%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

No cash-flow valuation

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).

▼Piotroski F-score2/9

▲Altman Z13.2 (safe)

▼Analyst target-46% (18 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.09 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Health Care

P/E (trailing)

sector median 29.9×

–

Forward P/E

sector median 17.6×

–

EV / EBITDA

sector median 15.8×

–

Price / sales

sector median 3.1× · 98th pct

40.7×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 3.5× · 90th pct

13.4×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 4.1% · 9th pct

-1.4%
pricier

Forward EPS $-4.44 vs trailing $-7.98. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$87.2M

as of 2020-12-31

vs a year ago

-65%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.04×

coverage

19-03

19-06

19-09

19-12

20-03

20-06

20-09

20-12

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

23.4%

Operating margin

-149.0%

FCF margin

-55.8%

Net margin

-141.4%

Return on equity

-46.6%

Return on invested capital

-118.5%

Net debt / EBITDA

–

Current ratio

2.3×

Interest cover

–

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

–

Piotroski F-score 2/9 · last two fiscal years

✗ Positive net income✗ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 13.2 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$124

-46%

Analysts

Hold

Range

$45–$200

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$1.9B	$-2.8B	$-2.1B
2024	$3.2B	$-3.6B	$-4.1B
2023	$6.8B	$-4.7B	$-3.8B
2022	$19.3B	$8.4B	$4.6B
2021	$18.5B	$12.2B	$13.3B
2020	$803.0M	$-747.0M	$2.0B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -53.4%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-06 · before open · EPS est -1.26

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-07-31	-2.06	-1.97	+4.3%
2026-04-30	-3.88	-3.40	+12.4%
2026-02-13	-2.64	-2.11	+20.2%
2025-11-06	-2.16	-0.51	+76.4%
2025-08-01	-3.00	-2.13	+29.0%
2025-05-01	-3.11	-2.52	+18.9%
2025-02-14	-2.73	-2.91	-6.7%
2024-11-07	-1.94	0.03	+101.6%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$143.0M	+4.4%
2026-03-31	$389.0M	–
2025-12-31	$676.0M	–
2025-09-30	$1.0B	–
2025-06-30	$137.0M	–

Analyst actions

Goldman Sachs

2026-10-15 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $137

Morgan Stanley

2026-10-07 · main

Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $95

Citigroup

2026-09-30 · down

Neutral → Sell
PT $80

Rothschild & Co

2026-09-03 · down

Neutral → Sell
PT $81

Argus Research

2026-08-28 · up

Hold → Buy
PT $180

Wolfe Research

2026-08-25 · up

Underperform → Peer Perform

Insider trades

Hoge Stephen

President · 2026-10-15

SELL
$8.6M

Hoge Stephen

President · 2026-10-14

SELL
$8.3M

Hoge Stephen

President · 2026-10-14

SELL
$96.4K

Hoge Stephen

President · 2026-09-15

SELL
$5.9M

Hoge Stephen

President · 2026-09-14

SELL
$5.8M

Mock James M

Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-10

SELL
$2.7M

Mock James M

Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-10

SELL
$2.0M

Klinger Shannon Thyme

Chief Legal Officer · 2026-09-01

SELL
$485.8K

Bancel Stephane

Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05

SELL
$8.3M

Bancel Stephane

Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05

SELL
$7.1M

Bancel Stephane

Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05

SELL
$2.3M

Bancel Stephane

Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05

SELL
$11.0M

Research

Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expect2026-10-18

News

Stock Market Today: Dow Wavers, Nasdaq Rallies; AMD, Nvidia Up As Chips Shine (Live Coverage)

Investor's Business Daily · 10h ago

3 Healthcare Stocks That Concern Us

StockStory · 11h ago

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) Sells Moderna and PTC on Thursday

GuruFocus.com · 14h ago

Roivant Sciences (ROIV) Stock Looks Fully Priced After A 393% Run

Simply Wall St. · Oct 18

Another BioNTech Cancer Vaccine Just Hit a Major Setback. Is BNTX Stock Still a Buy?

Motley Fool · Oct 18

Moderna Just Joined the Nasdaq-100. Here's What That Means for Investors.

Motley Fool · Oct 18

Sandisk Is Dominating the S&P 500 in 2026. Can It Repeat in 2027?

Motley Fool · Oct 18

Move Aside, Moderna: This mRNA Stock Is Sitting on a Cash Pile and a Deep Cancer Pipeline

Motley Fool · Oct 17

Maravai LifeSciences (MRVI) Stock Gets Fair Value Boost On mRNA And CleanCap Optimism

Simply Wall St. · Oct 17

Phase 3 Cancer Vaccine Success Could Change The Case For Moderna Stock

Simply Wall St. · Oct 17

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:46:56 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Hypothetical research for education, not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance (via yfinance, delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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