NCLH

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

$15.24

+1.26% 2026-10-19

Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

NCLHSPY

-0.7%

+7.9%

-21.8%

-24.8%

YTD

-31.7%

-33.6%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

12th pct in sector

D-

12-1 return: -34.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

53rd pct in sector

C+

Revenue growth (YoY): +4.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

72nd pct in sector

Forward E/P: 10.2% · EBITDA/EV: 11.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

68th pct in sector

Profit margin: +7.5% · Return on equity: +36.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.

Momentum Top 15

rank 480 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -34.5

Quality Growth

rank 69 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.7

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Key stats

Market cap$7.0B

P/E (trailing)9.4

P/E (forward)10.0

52-week range13.63 – 25.13

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+4.9%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (24)

Mean price target$18.92 (+24%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

No cash-flow valuation

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).

▲Forward P/E vs sector10.0x vs median 13.4x

•Piotroski F-score6/9

▼Altman Z0.3 (distress)

▲Net debt / EBITDA0.4x

▲Analyst target+24% (24 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.96 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary

P/E (trailing)

sector median 17.7× · 11th pct

9.4×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 13.4× · 25th pct

10.0×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 11.3× · 0th pct

2.9×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 1.2× · 33rd pct

0.7×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 2.8× · 49th pct

2.7×
cheaper

FCF yield

sector median 6.6% · 0th pct

-16.9%
pricier

Forward EPS $1.53 vs trailing $1.62 (-6% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

42.5%

Operating margin

15.1%

FCF margin

-11.7%

Net margin

7.5%

Return on equity

29.6%

Return on invested capital

41.1%

Net debt / EBITDA

0.4×

Current ratio

0.2×

Interest cover

–

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

2.8×

Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 0.3 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$19

+24%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$13–$26

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$9.8B	$423.2M	$-1.2B
2024	$9.5B	$910.3M	$838.9M
2023	$8.5B	$166.2M	$-744.6M
2022	$4.8B	$-2.3B	$-1.6B
2021	$648.0M	$-4.5B	$-3.2B
2020	$1.3B	$-4.0B	$-3.5B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +26.6%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-29 · before open · EPS est 0.94

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-07-30	0.39	0.48	+22.8%
2026-05-04	0.14	0.23	+61.3%
2026-03-02	0.27	0.28	+5.5%
2025-11-04	1.16	1.20	+3.3%
2025-07-31	0.52	0.51	-1.1%
2025-04-30	0.09	0.07	-22.9%
2025-02-27	0.11	0.26	+142.9%
2024-10-31	0.94	0.99	+5.3%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$2.6B	+4.9%
2026-03-31	$2.3B	–
2025-12-31	$2.2B	–
2025-09-30	$2.9B	–
2025-06-30	$2.5B	–

Analyst actions

Wells Fargo

2026-10-12 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $18

Citigroup

2026-10-02 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $19

Truist Securities

2026-09-24 · main

Hold → Hold
PT $16

JP Morgan

2026-09-24 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $13

Wells Fargo

2026-09-04 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $20

UBS

2026-08-18 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $20

News

Will Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

Zacks · 19h ago

Can Carnival's AI Push Accelerate Margin Expansion Through 2029?

Zacks · 22h ago

What Needs To Be True To Buy Carnival Stock Now?

Trefis · Oct 16

RCL Stock Rises 12% in a Month: Should You Buy Now or Hold Steady?

Zacks · Oct 16

Norwegian Cruise Line’s Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know

Barchart · Oct 16

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Hold Conference Call on Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results

GlobeNewswire · Oct 15

Carnival Just Surged 17% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 15

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Zacks · Oct 15

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:46:50 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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