NVR
NVR, Inc.
$5,828.00
-1.55% 2026-10-19
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500
NVRSPY
1W
+1.4%
1M
-5.2%
3M
-9.6%
6M
-17.9%
YTD
-20.1%
1Y
-23.7%
Grades vs sector
Momentum35th pct in sectorC-
Momentum
35th pct in sector
12-1 return: -14.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth3rd pct in sectorF
Growth
3rd pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): -10.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value50th pct in sectorC+
Value
50th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 6.6% · EBITDA/EV: 9.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability75th pct in sectorB+
Profitability
75th pct in sector
Profit margin: +11.8% · Return on equity: +31.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
rank 451 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -21.4
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$15.6B
P/E (trailing)15.1
P/E (forward)14.8
52-week range5,501.01 – 8,200.00
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)-10.9%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusHold (6)
Mean price target$6,395.33 (+10%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 15%
•Forward P/E vs sector14.8x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
•Analyst target+10% (6 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Homebuilding profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (1.0B, a 11% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2017–FY2025 (9 years: 12.5%) times current revenue = 1.2B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $4,374; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $4,935. Glossary
Bear
$3,217
-45%
growth -10% · disc. 9.8% · term. 2.0%
Base
$4,935
-15%
growth -5% · disc. 8.8% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$7,339
+26%
growth -2% · disc. 7.8% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 12.5% average margin × current revenue = 1.2B (last 12 months: 1.0B at a 11% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $4,374.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -1% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-1%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-16%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+4%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+6%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 1.2B, 8.8% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.90 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
cheaper
sector median 17.7× · 32nd pct
15.1×cheaper
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 58th pct
14.8×pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3×
–Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 61st pct
1.6×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 2.8× · 64th pct
4.6×pricier
FCF yield
cheaper
sector median 6.6% · 52nd pct
6.7%cheaper
Forward EPS $392.74 vs trailing $384.93 (+2% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
11.0%
Net margin
12.0%
Return on equity
33.7%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.9×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$6,395
+10%
Analysts
6
Hold
Range
$5,058–$7,400
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $10.3B | $1.3B | $1.1B |
| 2024 | $10.5B | $1.7B | $1.3B |
| 2023 | $9.5B | $1.6B | $1.5B |
| 2022 | $10.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| 2021 | $9.0B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| 2020 | $7.5B | $901.2M | $909.1M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -0.6%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-22 · before open · EPS est 102.77
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 89.98 | 83.96 | -6.7% |
| 2026-04-22 | 79.20 | 67.76 | -14.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | 105.90 | 121.54 | +14.8% |
| 2025-10-22 | 109.36 | 112.33 | +2.7% |
| 2025-07-23 | 106.20 | 108.54 | +2.2% |
| 2025-04-22 | 106.07 | 94.83 | -10.6% |
| 2025-01-28 | 129.35 | 139.93 | +8.2% |
| 2024-10-22 | 131.00 | 130.50 | -0.4% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $2.3B | -10.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.9B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.7B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.6B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.6B | – |
Analyst actions
Morgan Stanley
PT $5,058
2026-10-01 · init
→ UnderweightPT $5,058
UBS
PT $7,400
2026-07-25 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $7,400
Truist Securities
PT $6,400
2026-07-24 · main
Hold → HoldPT $6,400
B of A Securities
PT $7,200
2026-07-20 · main
Buy → BuyPT $7,200
Zelman & Assoc
2026-07-07 · up
Hold → BuyUBS
PT $7,700
2026-04-23 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $7,700
Recent dividends
1990-02-23: $0.167 · 1989-10-26: $0.230 · 1989-07-26: $0.222 · 1989-04-19: $0.202 · 1989-02-16: $0.192 · 1988-11-08: $0.130 · 1988-07-26: $0.125 · 1988-03-25: $0.080
Insider trades
Oliver George
$405.2K
Director · 2026-08-07
BUY$405.2K
None
–
None · None
SELL–
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:02:10 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.