TGT · Coteau

TGT

Target Corporation

$153.29

-0.63% 2026-10-19

Consumer StaplesS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

TGTSPY

-0.2%

-3.1%

+10.7%

+19.8%

YTD

+61.1%

+75.6%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

97th pct in sector

A+

12-1 return: +75.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

64th pct in sector

B-

Revenue growth (YoY): +5.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

54th pct in sector

C+

Forward E/P: 6.2% · EBITDA/EV: 10.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

63rd pct in sector

B-

Profit margin: +4.1% · Return on equity: +26.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend

4.6% of the book · Core sleeve

Held Momentum Top 15

rank 30 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 86.6

Quality Growth

rank 85 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.6

Why it's in Momentum Blend

In the Core sleeve: one of the steadiest 12-month uptrends in its universe (the model's smooth-trend momentum score).

What would knock it out: Re-checked at each monthly rebalance (next Oct 30); leaves if it no longer makes the Core selection. The latest preview keeps it.

Key stats

Market cap$69.6B

P/E (trailing)15.9

P/E (forward)16.1

52-week range83.44 – 170.75

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+5.3%

Dividend yield3.01%

Analyst consensusBuy (34)

Mean price target$163.35 (+7%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Roughly fairly valued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).

•DCF (base case)below the price by 12%

•Forward P/E vs sector16.1x vs median 14.5x

•Piotroski F-score5/9

▲Net debt / EBITDA0.6x

•Analyst target+7% (34 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$81

-47%

growth -3% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%

Base

$135

-12%

growth 2% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$208

+36%

growth 5% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 4% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+4%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

-18%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

-1%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+2%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 4.5B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-01). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.98 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Staples

P/E (trailing)

sector median 23.5× · 22nd pct

15.9×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 14.5× · 59th pct

16.1×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 11.9× · 15th pct

8.2×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 1.1× · 31st pct

0.6×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 3.1× · 57th pct

3.9×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 6.5% · 49th pct

6.4%
pricier

Forward EPS $9.55 vs trailing $9.63 (-1% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

19.3%

Operating margin

5.6%

FCF margin

4.1%

Net margin

4.1%

Return on equity

24.6%

Return on invested capital

20.0%

Net debt / EBITDA

0.6×

Current ratio

1.0×

Interest cover

14.1×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

2.0×

Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target

$163

+7%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$128–$190

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2026	$104.8B	$3.7B	$2.8B
2025	$106.6B	$4.1B	$4.5B
2024	$107.4B	$4.1B	$3.8B
2023	$109.1B	$2.8B	$-1.5B
2022	$106.0B	$6.9B	$5.1B
2021	$93.6B	$4.4B	$7.9B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -1.3%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-18 · before open · EPS est 1.71

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-19	2.34	4.11	+75.8%
2026-05-20	1.46	1.71	+17.3%
2026-03-03	2.16	2.44	+13.0%
2025-11-19	1.71	1.78	+4.1%
2025-08-20	2.03	2.05	+0.8%
2025-05-21	1.65	1.30	-21.3%
2025-03-04	2.25	2.41	+7.0%
2024-11-20	2.30	1.85	-19.6%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-07-31	$26.5B	+5.3%
2026-04-30	$25.4B	–
2026-01-31	$30.5B	–
2025-10-31	$25.3B	–
2025-07-31	$25.2B	–

Analyst actions

Evercore ISI Group

2026-10-13 · main

In-Line → In-Line
PT $165

HSBC

2026-09-30 · up

Hold → Buy
PT $190

Telsey Advisory Group

2026-08-20 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $182

Citigroup

2026-08-20 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $160

Goldman Sachs

2026-08-20 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $161

BMO Capital

2026-08-20 · main

Market Perform → Market Perform
PT $160

Recent dividends

2026-08-12: $1.160 · 2026-05-13: $1.140 · 2026-02-11: $1.140 · 2025-11-12: $1.140 · 2025-08-13: $1.140 · 2025-05-14: $1.120 · 2025-02-12: $1.120 · 2024-11-20: $1.120

Insider trades

Cornell Brian C

Director, Executive Officer · 2026-08-25

SELL
$8.2M

Kremer Melissa K

Executive Officer · 2026-08-24

SELL
$2.6M

Liegel Matthew A

Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-08-21

SELL
$151.4K

None

None · None

SELL
–

None

None · None

SELL
–

None

None · None

SELL
–

News

Target Stock Is Up 61%. Is Its 3% Dividend Still Worth Buying?

24/7 Wall St. · 25m ago

10,000 Hours of Continuous Cook Time and a New Standard for Home Cooking: Anova Unveils the New Precision® Cooker Pro 3.0

PR Newswire · 58m ago

ETFs Are Buying Target (TGT) on Oct. 16

GuruFocus.com · 1h ago

Shopify vs. Target: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Motley Fool · 1h ago

Walmart goes on offense to win the subscription space, offering new bundle for one price

Yahoo Finance · 2h ago

Top Stock Picks for Week of October 19, 2026

Zacks · 15h ago

This High-Yielding Dividend Stock Has Soared Past the "Magnificent Seven" in 2026

Motley Fool · 17h ago

Alaska Airlines names Amaresh Siva Chief Information Technology Officer

PR Newswire · 20h ago

Walmart Dropped 5% In The Last 6 Months: This Wall Street Firm Says 30% Gains Are Coming Soon

24/7 Wall St. · 21h ago

Target (TGT) Has an Income Story. Does It Also Have a Growth Story?

Insider Monkey · 21h ago

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:01:37 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

What is Coteau?Disclaimer Terms Privacy Data status