TWLO · Coteau

TWLO

Twilio Inc.

$257.29

+5.29% 2026-10-19

Information TechnologyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

TWLOSPY

-9.0%

+5.5%

+25.4%

+76.7%

YTD

+80.9%

+141.2%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

86th pct in sector

A-

12-1 return: +116.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

64th pct in sector

B-

Revenue growth (YoY): +22.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

8th pct in sector

D-

Forward E/P: 2.8% · EBITDA/EV: 1.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

62nd pct in sector

B-

Profit margin: +20.6% · Return on equity: +13.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Top 15.

Momentum Top 15

6.7% of the book · rank 15 of 499

Held Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

Why it's in Momentum Top 15 #15 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +135.4% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 15th of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-16) it ranks 17th.

Key stats

Market cap$39.5B

P/E (trailing)35.6

P/E (forward)37.8

52-week range105.00 – 308.40

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+22.0%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (29)

Mean price target$270.64 (+5%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Looks expensive

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -3 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 33%

▼Forward P/E vs sector37.8x vs median 16.9x

•Piotroski F-score6/9

▲Altman Z12.7 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA-3.7x

•Analyst target+5% (29 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$111

-57%

growth 10% · disc. 12.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$174

-33%

growth 16% · disc. 11.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$254

-1%

growth 20% · disc. 10.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 18% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+18%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

>150%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+10%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+24%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 1.0B, 11.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.36 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)

sector median 35.9× · 49th pct

35.6×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 16.9× · 93rd pct

37.8×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 20.8× · 92nd pct

84.2×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 4.6× · 67th pct

7.1×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 5.1× · 42nd pct

4.4×
cheaper

FCF yield

sector median 3.5% · 39th pct

2.6%
pricier

Forward EPS $6.80 vs trailing $7.23 (-6% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$138.2M

as of 2026-06-30

vs a year ago

-13%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.02×

coverage

24-09

24-12

25-03

25-06

25-09

25-12

26-03

26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

48.5%

Operating margin

5.2%

FCF margin

18.3%

Net margin

20.6%

Return on equity

12.8%

Return on invested capital

4.0%

Net debt / EBITDA

-3.7×

Current ratio

4.6×

Interest cover

–

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

0.9×

Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 12.7 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$271

+5%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$165–$335

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$5.1B	$33.8M	$1.0B
2024	$4.5B	$-109.4M	$716.2M
2023	$4.2B	$-1.0B	$414.8M
2022	$3.8B	$-1.3B	$-254.4M
2021	$2.8B	$-949.9M	$-104.2M
2020	$1.8B	$-491.0M	$6.8M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +9.8%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-29 · after close · EPS est 1.47

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-06	1.32	1.47	+11.1%
2026-04-30	1.27	1.50	+18.0%
2026-02-12	1.23	1.33	+8.2%
2025-10-30	1.07	1.25	+17.0%
2025-08-07	1.05	1.19	+13.3%
2025-05-01	0.96	1.14	+18.5%
2025-02-13	1.03	1.00	-3.2%
2024-10-30	0.86	1.02	+19.1%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$1.5B	+22.0%
2026-03-31	$1.4B	–
2025-12-31	$1.4B	–
2025-09-30	$1.3B	–
2025-06-30	$1.2B	–

Analyst actions

BTIG

2026-10-16 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $315

B of A Securities

2026-10-14 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $320

JP Morgan

2026-10-08 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $335

HSBC

2026-09-25 · down

Hold → Reduce
PT $211

TD Cowen

2026-09-22 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $300

Rosenblatt

2026-09-22 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $290