UFCS · Coteau

UFCS

United Fire Group, Inc.

$56.11

-0.58% 2026-10-19

FinancialsS&P 600

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

UFCSSPY

+0.2%

+3.2%

+9.6%

+42.6%

YTD

+55.6%

+86.1%

Grades vs sector

Momentum

98th pct in sector

A+

12-1 return: +76.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

64th pct in sector

B-

Revenue growth (YoY): +14.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

57th pct in sector

B-

Forward E/P: 8.6% · EBITDA/EV: 13.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

40th pct in sector

C-

Profit margin: +9.6% · Return on equity: +15.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

no data

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend

4.5% of the book · Core sleeve

Held Momentum Top 15

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Why it's in Momentum Blend

In the Core sleeve: one of the steadiest 12-month uptrends in its universe (the model's smooth-trend momentum score).

What would knock it out: Re-checked at each monthly rebalance (next Oct 30); leaves if it no longer makes the Core selection. The latest preview keeps it.

Key stats

Market cap$1.4B

P/E (trailing)10.4

P/E (forward)11.6

52-week range29.85 – 56.98

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+14.4%

Dividend yield1.42%

Analyst consensusNone (2)

Mean price target$58.50 (+4%)

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 707%

•Forward P/E vs sector11.6x vs median 10.2x

•Piotroski F-score5/9

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$253

+351%

growth 8% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$453

+707%

growth 13% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$821

+1364%

growth 17% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Not meaningful for property & casualty insurance: for banks, insurers and lenders, cash moving through loans and deposits swamps "free cash flow". Book value and earnings are better guides.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.47 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Financials

P/E (trailing)

sector median 13.0× · 22nd pct

10.4×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 10.2× · 62nd pct

11.6×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 10.9×

–

Price / sales

sector median 2.8× · 14th pct

1.0×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 1.6× · 46th pct

1.5×
cheaper

FCF yield

sector median 8.2% · 89th pct

18.8%
cheaper

Forward EPS $4.84 vs trailing $5.39 (-10% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

–

Operating margin

–

FCF margin

18.4%

Net margin

9.6%

Return on equity

14.4%

Return on invested capital

–

Net debt / EBITDA

–

Current ratio

–

Interest cover

–

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.9×

Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target

$58

+4%

Analysts

None

Range

$57–$60

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$1.4B	$118.2M	$269.7M
2024	$1.3B	$62.0M	$340.3M
2023	$1.1B	$-29.7M	$171.7M
2022	$980.3M	$15.0M	$-1.3M
2021	$1.1B	$80.6M	$29.9M
2020	$1.1B	$-112.7M	$41.4M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +12.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-03 · during market · EPS est 1.19

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-03	0.70	1.30	+87.0%
2026-05-05	0.79	1.15	+45.6%
2026-02-10	0.91	1.50	+65.8%
2025-11-04	0.72	1.50	+108.3%
2025-08-05	0.56	0.90	+60.7%
2025-05-06	0.61	0.70	+14.8%
2025-02-11	0.66	1.25	+89.4%
2024-11-05	0.21	0.81	+285.7%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$383.7M	+14.0%
2026-03-31	$369.4M	–
2025-12-31	$366.2M	–
2025-09-30	$354.0M	–
2025-06-30	$336.6M	–

Analyst actions

Piper Sandler

2026-08-05 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $60

Piper Sandler

2026-05-07 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $57

Jones Trading

2026-05-07 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $45

Piper Sandler

2026-05-06 · up

Neutral → Overweight
PT $45

Jones Trading

2026-03-02 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $40

Piper Sandler

2026-02-12 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $41

Recent dividends

2026-09-04: $0.200 · 2026-06-05: $0.200 · 2025-12-05: $0.160 · 2025-08-29: $0.160 · 2025-06-06: $0.160 · 2025-03-07: $0.160 · 2024-11-29: $0.160 · 2024-08-30: $0.160

Insider trades

Carlton Scott L

Director · 2026-09-03

SELL
$542.8K

News

Is United Fire Group (UFCS) Stock Undervalued Right Now?

Zacks · Oct 16

Progressive (PGR) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Zacks · Oct 14

United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Zacks · Oct 14

Here's Why Investors Should Stay Neutral on AMSF Stock for Now

Zacks · Sep 30

Should Value Investors Buy United Fire Group (UFCS) Stock?

Zacks · Sep 30

United Fire Group (UFCS) Has Surged This Year, Is It Still Undervalued?

Simply Wall St. · Sep 28

UVE Near 52-Week High: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Zacks · Sep 25

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Travelers, Universal Insurance, American Integrity Insurance and United Fire

Zacks · Sep 25

Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 17:47:08 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.

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