VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
$433.31
-2.56% 2026-10-19
EnergyS&P 500
VLOSPY
1W
-0.6%
1M
+4.8%
3M
+38.8%
6M
+93.1%
YTD
+170.1%
1Y
+180.5%
Grades vs sector
Momentum99th pct in sectorA+
Momentum
99th pct in sector
12-1 return: +133.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth70th pct in sectorB
Growth
70th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +51.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value55th pct in sectorC+
Value
55th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 10.7% · EBITDA/EV: 9.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability56th pct in sectorB-
Profitability
56th pct in sector
Profit margin: +5.4% · Return on equity: +27.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Held by 1 of 3 live models: Momentum Blend.
Momentum Blend
3.8% of the book · Core sleeve
HeldMomentum Top 15rank 20 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 115.3
Quality Growthrank 19 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.8
Key stats
Market cap$124.8B
P/E (trailing)18.1
P/E (forward)9.1
52-week range156.26 – 461.52
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+51.7%
Dividend yield1.08%
Analyst consensusBuy (19)
Mean price target$409.58 (-5%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 220%
▲Forward P/E vs sector9.1x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.0x
▼Analyst target-5% (19 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (9.3B, a 7% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 4.8%) times current revenue = 6.7B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $1,931; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $1,386. Glossary
Bear
$673
+55%
growth 12% · disc. 8.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$1,386
+220%
growth 20% · disc. 7.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$2,705
+524%
growth 25% · disc. 6.2% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 4.8% average margin × current revenue = 6.7B (last 12 months: 9.3B at a 7% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $1,931.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 1% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+1%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-23%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+44%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-11%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+14%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 6.7B, 7.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.59 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Energy
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 52nd pct
18.1×pricier
Forward P/E
cheaper
sector median 13.6× · 24th pct
9.1×cheaper
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 8.1× · 83rd pct
12.4×pricier
Price / sales
cheaper
sector median 2.2× · 15th pct
0.9×cheaper
Price / book
pricier
sector median 1.9× · 89th pct
5.0×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 7.7% · 49th pct
7.5%pricier
Forward EPS $47.60 vs trailing $23.99 (+98% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
8.0%
Operating margin
7.2%
FCF margin
6.7%
Net margin
5.2%
Return on equity
28.8%
Return on invested capital
30.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.0×
Current ratio
1.6×
Interest cover
17.8×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.5×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$410
-5%
Analysts
19
Buy
Range
$238–$496
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $122.7B | $2.3B | $5.8B |
| 2024 | $129.9B | $2.8B | $6.7B |
| 2023 | $144.8B | $8.8B | $9.2B |
| 2022 | $176.4B | $11.5B | $12.6B |
| 2021 | $114.0B | $930.0M | $5.9B |
| 2020 | $64.9B | $-1.4B | $948.0M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -11.4%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-22 · before open · EPS est 20.95
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 10.13 | 12.54 | +23.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | 3.16 | 4.22 | +33.5% |
| 2026-01-29 | 3.27 | 3.82 | +16.9% |
| 2025-10-23 | 3.05 | 3.66 | +19.9% |
| 2025-07-24 | 1.77 | 2.28 | +29.1% |
| 2025-04-24 | 0.41 | 0.89 | +117.3% |
| 2025-01-30 | 0.06 | 0.64 | +970.8% |
| 2024-10-24 | 0.98 | 1.14 | +16.1% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $44.5B | +48.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | $32.4B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $30.4B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $32.2B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $29.9B | – |
Analyst actions
Wells Fargo
PT $485
2026-10-14 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $485
Citigroup
PT $485
2026-10-13 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $485
Evercore ISI Group
PT $385
2026-10-12 · main
In-Line → In-LinePT $385
Jefferies
PT $394
2026-10-08 · main
Hold → HoldPT $394
Mizuho
PT $434
2026-10-08 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $434
Barclays
PT $441
2026-10-06 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $441
Recent dividends
2026-07-31: $1.200 · 2026-05-21: $1.200 · 2026-02-05: $1.200 · 2025-11-20: $1.130 · 2025-07-31: $1.130 · 2025-05-20: $1.130 · 2025-01-30: $1.130 · 2024-11-20: $1.070
Insider trades
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
–
None · None
SELL–
News
SpaceX, Meta Earnings: What to Watch This Week
The Wall Street Journal · 3h ago
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Edge Higher Amid Tech Rebound As Q3 Earnings Season Forges Ahead: DJT, AMZN, CBRS, CRWV Stocks In Focus
Stocktwits · 7h ago
5 Must-See Earnings Charts This Week
Zacks · 14h ago
Valero Energy Shares Fall After DBS Bank Downgrade
MT Newswires · 16h ago
Is Chevron Stock Worth More Than Its Competitors?
Trefis · 17h ago
Sector Update: Energy
MT Newswires · 18h ago
Gas Never Used To Be This Pricey In October; West Coast Imports Are Surging
Investor's Business Daily · 18h ago
DBS Bank Downgrades Valero Energy to Hold, $436 Price Target
MT Newswires · 20h ago
Phillips 66 Stock Is Up 133%. Can Its Dividend Keep Growing?
24/7 Wall St. · 21h ago
BMO Capital Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $505 From $455
MT Newswires · 23h ago
Stats refreshed 2026-10-19 19:01:37 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.