XOM
XOM
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
$178.28
-0.39% 2026-10-19
EnergyS&P 500
XOMSPY
1W
+3.6%
1M
+9.0%
3M
+20.9%
6M
+22.3%
YTD
+51.1%
1Y
+63.4%
Grades vs sector
Momentum69th pct in sectorB
Momentum
69th pct in sector
12-1 return: +46.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth65th pct in sectorB
Growth
65th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +44.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value29th pct in sectorD+
Value
29th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 6.6% · EBITDA/EV: 8.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability44th pct in sectorC
Profitability
44th pct in sector
Profit margin: +9.1% · Return on equity: +12.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisionsno data–
Revisions
no data
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 3 live models right now.
Momentum Top 15
rank 70 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 46.9
Quality Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
Key stats
Market cap$736.0B
P/E (trailing)23.0
P/E (forward)15.1
52-week range111.98 – 179.16
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+44.1%
Dividend yield2.30%
Analyst consensusBuy (22)
Mean price target$175.64 (-1%)
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)above the price by 10%
•Forward P/E vs sector15.1x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
•Analyst target-1% (22 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Integrated Oil & Gas profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (18.8B, a 6% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 6.8%) times current revenue = 22.6B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $162; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $195. Glossary
Bear
$105
-41%
growth 11% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$195
+10%
growth 19% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$327
+83%
growth 23% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 6.8% average margin × current revenue = 22.6B (last 12 months: 18.8B at a 6% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $162.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 13% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+13%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-26%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-7%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+13%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 22.6B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-03-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.21 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Energy
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 65th pct
23.0×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.6× · 65th pct
15.1×pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1×
–Price / sales
pricier
sector median 2.2× · 51st pct
2.2×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 1.9× · 80th pct
2.9×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 7.7% · 17th pct
2.6%pricier
Forward EPS $11.86 vs trailing $7.77 (+53% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
5.6%
Net margin
7.6%
Return on equity
10.0%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.0×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.9×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$176
-1%
Analysts
22
Buy
Range
–
low – high
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $332.2B | $28.8B | $23.6B |
| 2024 | $349.6B | $33.7B | $30.7B |
| 2023 | $344.6B | $36.0B | $33.5B |
| 2022 | $413.7B | $55.7B | $58.4B |
| 2021 | $285.6B | $23.0B | $36.1B |
| 2020 | $181.5B | $-22.4B | $-2.6B |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -7.0%.
Earnings
Next report: –
No EPS history available.
News
Forget Tech. Energy Will Be The Big Winner This Earnings Season.
Barrons.com · 6h ago
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Motley Fool · 8h ago
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Trefis · 10h ago
What Is The Market Seeing In Texas Pacific Land Stock?
Trefis · 12h ago
Buy 5 Giant Oil Explorers to Tap the Northward Journey of Crude Prices
Zacks · 15h ago
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Adds XOM and CVX on Oct. 15
GuruFocus.com · 17h ago
Why Did XOM, V, TEAM Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs Last Week?
Stocktwits · Oct 18
Venezuela expects $76 billion oil investment boost amid U.S. cooperation
Investing.com · Oct 18
Oil Topped $110 as Tech Stocks Lost $1 Trillion in a Day
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 17
Should You Buy Occidental Petroleum Stock For Its Cash?
Trefis · Oct 14
Stats refreshed 2026-10-18 23:37:35 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic StrategiesSystematic equity research and model portfolios.Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes research, model portfolios and tools. It does not manage money or offer investment advice. Model results are hypothetical. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed), SEC EDGAR.