coteauBeta Get App

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
$79.36
-1.37% Oct 21 close
Consumer StaplesS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-11%+2%+16%+30%+43%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
ADMSPY
1W
-5.1%
1M
-4.8%
3M
-8.5%
6M
+15.8%
YTD
+40.9%
1Y
+32.3%

Live chart

Loading live chart…

What they do

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials.

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
88th percentile in sector
A-
12-1 return: +35.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
74th percentile in sector
B+
Revenue growth (YoY): +7.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
37th percentile in sector
C-
Forward E/P: 6.9% · EBITDA/EV: 6.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
31st percentile in sector
D+
Profit margin: +2.2% · Return on equity: +7.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 96 of 499 · 12-month momentum 40.0%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

Quant models: Quant Composite 1.0%, Quant Risk-Weighted 1.0% (research, not a recommendation).

News

More news
Ingredion's Productivity Efforts Advance: Can Cost Discipline Pay Off?
Zacks · Oct 21
Nutraceutical Ingredients Market Forecasts Growth from $108.33 Billion (2026) to $161.53 Billion by 2031, Profiling Cargill, ADM, dsm-firmenich, Kerry & 21 Other Key Players
GlobeNewswire · Oct 21
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Faces A Fresh Valuation Test As Pipeline Case Enters View
Simply Wall St. · Oct 21
ADM Cares and Concern Worldwide US Expand Kenya Partnership to Reach 17,500 Smallholder Farmers
Business Wire · Oct 20
1 Profitable Stock to Target This Week and 2 Facing Headwinds
StockStory · Oct 20

Key stats

Market value$38.2B
P/E (last 12 months)21.7
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)14.0
52-week range$55.58 – $88.75
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+7.2%
Dividend yield2.59%
Analyst consensusHold (10)
Average analyst price target$80.30 (+1%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 40%
•Forward P/E vs sector14.0x vs median 14.5x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
•Analyst target+1% (10 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$22
-72%
growth -5% · disc. 8.4% · term. 2.0%
Base
$48
-40%
growth -0% · disc. 7.4% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$90
+14%
growth 3% · disc. 6.4% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 6% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+6%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+25%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-8%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+5%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 1.7B, 7.4% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.63 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Staples

P/E (trailing)
sector median 23.5× · 40th pct
 21.7×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 14.5× · 42nd pct
 14.0×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.9×
 –
Price / sales
sector median 1.1× · 18th pct
 0.5×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.1×
 –
FCF yield
sector median 6.5% · 32nd pct
 4.4%
pricier

Forward EPS $5.67 vs trailing $3.65 (+55% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
6.9%
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
2.0%
Net margin
2.2%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.4×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.6×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$80
+1%
Analysts
10
Hold
Range
$60–$95
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$80.3B$1.1B$4.2B
2024$85.5B$1.8B$1.2B
2023$93.9B$3.5B$3.0B
2022$101.6B$4.3B$2.2B
2021$85.2B$2.7B$5.4B
2020$64.4B$1.8B$-3.2B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -7.5%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-03 · before open · EPS est 1.59
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.001.84
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-041.441.84+28.0%
2026-05-050.660.71+7.8%
2026-02-030.800.87+9.2%
2025-11-040.850.92+7.9%
2025-08-050.800.93+16.8%
2025-05-060.670.70+4.5%
2025-02-041.151.14-0.8%
2024-11-181.091.09-0.0%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$22.7B+7.2%
2026-03-31$20.5B–
2025-12-31$18.6B–
2025-09-30$20.4B–
2025-06-30$21.2B–
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-12 · JP Morgan reiterated Underweight on ADM
Reiterated
2026-08-17 · UBS reiterated Buy on ADM
Reiterated
2026-08-05 · BMO Capital reiterated Market Perform on ADM
Reiterated
2026-08-05 · Barclays reiterated Equal-Weight on ADM
Upgrade
2026-08-05 · Morgan Stanley upgraded ADM from Underweight to Equal-Weight
Reiterated
2026-07-20 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Underweight on ADM

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Recent dividends

2026-08-19: $0.520 · 2026-05-20: $0.520 · 2026-02-17: $0.520 · 2025-11-19: $0.510 · 2025-08-20: $0.510 · 2025-05-21: $0.510 · 2025-02-18: $0.510 · 2024-11-21: $0.500
Insider trades
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:06:57 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

Free. Not investment advice. Unsubscribe anytime.

coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

How it worksTermsPrivacyData statusSend feedback
Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026