Conviction 20
20 hand-picked stocks across AI, power, biotech and defense, fixed at the Oct 20, 2026 close and tracked forward against SPY.
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Holdings
Weights set at the Oct 20, 2026 close
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation
6.0%
VSTVistra Corp.
6.0%
TGTXTG Therapeutics, Inc.
6.0%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corporation
6.0%
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.
5.9%
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
5.9%
APHAmphenol Corporation
5.9%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.
5.9%
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
5.9%
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.
3.5%
RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.
4.0%
SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.
4.0%
SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.
4.0%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.
2.9%
FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.
2.5%
BEAMBeam Therapeutics Inc.
2.5%
NBISNebius Group N.V.
2.5%Why each stock is held
NOC Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Defense & space). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
XEL Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
VST Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
CEG Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
TGTX Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Biotech & health). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
CRC Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
AMZN Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
TSM Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
APH Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
AVGO Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
NVDA Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
ARGX Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Biotech & health). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
HWM Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Core group, Defense & space). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
RVMD Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, Biotech & health). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
SEI Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, Energy & BTM power). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
SPCX Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, Defense & space). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
MU Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
FTAI Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, Pivot / optionality). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
BEAM Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, Biotech & health). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
NBIS Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-20 close (Higher-risk group, AI). Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.
How it works
What it is. A research model portfolio, not a rules-based screen: 20 stocks chosen after reviewing analyst consensus, price trend, volatility and drawdown, in two groups. Core (about 75%) holds lower and medium-risk names; a higher-risk group (about 22%) holds smaller positions in more volatile names. About 2.6% is cash.
Themes. AI hardware and platforms, electricity and power generation, biotech, and defense and space.
How it is tracked. Weights are fixed as of the Oct 20, 2026 close and are not rebalanced, so they drift with prices. The live record starts from that close and is compared with SPY.
What can go wrong. It is concentrated in a few themes and includes several volatile, recently listed or pre-revenue companies. Picks made by judgment can share blind spots that a rules-based screen would not.
Universe: Hand-picked US-listed stocks.
Disclosures
The 20 names were picked in Oct 2026 with what was known then, so any backtest of them would be hindsight-biased. Results count only from the Oct 20, 2026 close, compared with SPY.
Research only: a model portfolio for information, not personal advice and not an account anyone manages. Past results don't predict future returns.
coteauCoteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.