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ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
$109.57
-1.23% Oct 22 close
IndustrialsS&P 400 CompareTechnicals
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-5%+12%+30%+48%+66%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
ALSNSPY
1W
-2.6%
1M
-5.0%
3M
-8.2%
6M
-19.1%
YTD
+12.7%
1Y
+34.6%

Live chart

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What they do

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses.

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
83rd percentile in sector
A-
12-1 return: +38.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
98th percentile in sector
A+
Revenue growth (YoY): +92.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
81st percentile in sector
A-
Forward E/P: 10.1% · EBITDA/EV: 9.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
74th percentile in sector
B+
Profit margin: +12.0% · Return on equity: +28.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
3 Growth Stocks with Explosive Upside
StockStory · Oct 20

Key stats

Market value$9.2B
P/E (last 12 months)17.6
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)9.9
52-week range$76.01 – $137.62
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+92.4%
Dividend yield1.06%
Analyst consensusBuy (11)
Average analyst price target$138.91 (+27%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 405%
▲Forward P/E vs sector9.9x vs median 17.1x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
•Altman Z1.8 (grey)
▼Net debt / EBITDA4.3x
▲Analyst target+27% (11 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$216
+97%
growth 18% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$553
+405%
growth 30% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$1,102
+906%
growth 38% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 4% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+4%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+10%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+8%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+3%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+8%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.7B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.98 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.4× · 20th pct
 17.6×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 17.1× · 10th pct
 9.9×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.8× · 52nd pct
 14.9×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 2.1× · 49th pct
 2.1×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 61st pct
 4.6×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.5% · 77th pct
 8.0%
cheaper

Forward EPS $11.26 vs trailing $6.29 (+79% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
36.4%
Operating margin
19.6%
FCF margin
16.7%
Net margin
12.0%
Return on equity
26.7%
Return on invested capital
11.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
4.3×
Current ratio
1.8×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.8×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 1.8 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$139
+27%
Analysts
11
Buy
Range
$115–$185
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$3.0B$623.0M$661.0M
2024$3.2B$731.0M$658.0M
2023$3.0B$673.0M$659.0M
2022$2.8B$531.0M$490.0M
2021$2.4B$442.0M$460.0M
2020$2.1B$299.0M$446.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +2.8%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-02 · during market · EPS est 2.48
24-1025-0225-0525-0825-1026-0226-0526-080.002.73
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-032.612.73+4.5%
2026-05-042.102.57+22.7%
2026-02-231.461.42-2.4%
2025-10-291.851.75-5.7%
2025-08-042.222.25+1.4%
2025-05-011.982.25+14.0%
2025-02-111.932.05+6.0%
2024-10-291.982.28+14.9%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$1.6B+92.4%
2026-03-31$1.4B–
2025-12-31$737.0M–
2025-09-30$693.0M–
2025-06-30$814.0M–
Rating changes
Upgrade
2026-10-12 · Citigroup upgraded ALSN from Neutral to Buy
Reiterated
2026-10-08 · JP Morgan reiterated Neutral on ALSN
Reiterated
2026-10-08 · Wells Fargo reiterated Equal-Weight on ALSN
Initiated
2026-10-02 · Freedom Broker started covering ALSN at Buy
Reiterated
2026-07-17 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Equal-Weight on ALSN
Reiterated
2026-07-14 · Citigroup reiterated Neutral on ALSN

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Recent dividends

2026-08-21: $0.290 · 2026-05-18: $0.290 · 2026-03-09: $0.290 · 2025-11-21: $0.270 · 2025-08-20: $0.270 · 2025-05-19: $0.270 · 2025-03-03: $0.270 · 2024-11-18: $0.250
Insider trades
Graziosi David S.
Director, Chair, President and CEO · 2026-08-21
Sell
$611.0K
Graziosi David S.
Director, Chair, President and CEO · 2026-08-21
Sell
$1.2M
Graziosi David S.
Director, Chair, President and CEO · 2026-08-21
Sell
$1.7M
Scroggins Eric C.
CLO & Asst. Secretary · 2026-08-11
Sell
$131.2K
Bohley G Frederick
See Remarks · 2026-08-10
Sell
$484.7K
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:01:55 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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