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Antero Resources Corporation
$38.83
+0.00% 2026-10-20
EnergyS&P 400
-6%+6%+18%+30%+42%Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026
ARSPY
1W
+3.4%
1M
+11.4%
3M
+14.7%
6M
+4.5%
YTD
+12.7%
1Y
+21.9%

Live chart

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What they do

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream.

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Grades vs sector

Momentum
20th pct in sector
D
12-1 return: +8.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
45th pct in sector
C
Revenue growth (YoY): +12.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
86th pct in sector
A-
Forward E/P: 12.0% · EBITDA/EV: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
59th pct in sector
B-
Profit margin: +18.7% · Return on equity: +14.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blend
not in the current book
New Highs Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20
not in the current book

News

More news
What Is Antero Midstream’s (AM) Economic Moat, and Is One Customer Enough?
Insider Monkey · Oct 19

Key stats

Market cap$11.9B
P/E (trailing)11.2
P/E (forward)8.3
52-week range29.10 – 45.75
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+12.6%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (22)
Mean price target$49.64 (+28%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +4 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 69%
▲Forward P/E vs sector8.3x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
•Altman Z1.9 (grey)
▲Net debt / EBITDA1.1x
▲Analyst target+28% (22 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$34
-12%
growth -3% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$65
+69%
growth 2% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$121
+213%
growth 5% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 17.3% average margin × current revenue = 1.1B (last 12 months: 0.9B at a 15% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $54.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -4% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-4%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-8%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-10%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 1.1B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.54 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7× · 27th pct
11.2×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 13th pct
8.3×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1× · 29th pct
6.3×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.2× · 38th pct
1.9×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 29th pct
1.4×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 7.7% · 49th pct
7.5%
pricier

Forward EPS $4.70 vs trailing $3.48 (+35% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
24.7%
FCF margin
14.7%
Net margin
19.1%
Return on equity
14.1%
Return on invested capital
10.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1×
Current ratio
0.4×
Interest cover
5.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.7×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✗ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 1.9 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$50
+28%
Analysts
22
Buy
Range
$40–$58
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$5.3B–$1.6B
2024$4.3B–$849.3M
2023$4.7B–$994.7M
2022$7.1B–$2.1B
2021$4.6B–$944.2M
2020$3.5B–$-138.7M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -9.6%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-28 · after close · EPS est 0.98
24-1025-0225-0425-0725-1026-0226-0426-07-0.121.15
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-290.850.76-10.5%
2026-04-291.141.15+0.9%
2026-02-110.520.43-17.9%
2025-10-290.250.16-37.3%
2025-07-300.420.35-16.4%
2025-04-300.880.78-11.0%
2025-02-120.290.57+100.2%
2024-10-30-0.06-0.12-86.9%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$1.3B+11.1%
2026-03-31$1.9B–
2025-12-31$1.3B–
2025-09-30$1.1B–
2025-06-30$1.2B–
Analyst actions
Scotiabank
2026-10-15 · init
→ Sector Outperform
PT $46
Morgan Stanley
2026-10-15 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $51
Mizuho
2026-10-08 · main
Outperform → Outperform
PT $51
UBS
2026-10-06 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $54
Truist Securities
2026-10-05 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $46
Jefferies
2026-10-02 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $56
Insider trades
None
None · None
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:03:32 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.