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ARX

Accelerant Holdings
$19.77
+0.08% Oct 21 close
Financial Services
-27%-6%+15%+35%+56%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
ARXSPY
1W
+0.1%
1M
-0.0%
3M
+46.9%
6M
+24.4%
YTD
+20.9%
1Y
+55.0%

Live chart

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What they do

Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners.

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

No sector grades for ARX yet. Grades rank S&P 1500 stocks within their sector and refresh after each daily data run, so a stock outside that index or newly covered has none.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
Are Finance Stocks Lagging Citigroup (C) This Year?
Zacks · Oct 20
ARC Resources (TSX:ARX) Stock Could Be 48% Undervalued As Cash Flow Holds Up
Simply Wall St. · Oct 17
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Stock Looks Fully Valued With Sales In Focus
Simply Wall St. · Oct 08
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Looks Fairly Valued As Growth Narrative Builds
Simply Wall St. · Oct 08
Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Accelerant Stock?
Zacks · Oct 08

Key stats

Market value$4.3B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)21.0
52-week range$9.18 – $19.90
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+57.2%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusHold (3)
Average analyst price target$20.25 (+2%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)above the price by 5%
•Analyst target+2% (3 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$13
-35%
growth 18% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$21
+5%
growth 30% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$34
+70%
growth 38% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 21% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+21%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 5 yrs
n/a
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.0B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.00 (n/a) × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs sector

Forward EPS $0.94 vs trailing $-6.22. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
4.0%
Net margin
–
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–

Analysts

Mean target
$20
+2%
Analysts
3
Hold
Range
$20–$20
low – high

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$912.9M–$445.1M
2024$602.6M–$785.7M
2023$344.0M–$290.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR –.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-11 · before open · EPS est 0.20
25-0825-1126-0326-0526-080.000.39
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-130.160.32+95.4%
2026-05-130.160.17+8.3%
2026-03-180.220.23+5.9%
2025-11-120.210.39+80.6%
2025-08-280.120.14+14.4%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$373.6M+78.0%
2026-03-31$279.1M–
2025-12-31$209.4M–
2025-09-30$280.7M–
2025-06-30$209.9M–
Analyst actions
TD Cowen
2026-09-30 · down
Buy → Hold
PT $20
Raymond James
2026-09-23 · down
Market Perform → Underperform
Citizens
2026-08-14 · down
Market Outperform → Market Perform
William Blair
2026-08-13 · down
Outperform → Market Perform
Wells Fargo
2026-07-09 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $16
Morgan Stanley
2026-07-06 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $14
Insider trades
Meriwether Karen Sue
Director · 2026-08-21
SELL
$10.6K
Hasley Nancy
Director · 2026-08-13
SELL
$400.8K
Oneill Francis James
Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer · 2026-08-11
SELL
$1.1M
Radke Jeffrey L
Director, Co-Founder, CEO, 10% owner · 2026-08-10
SELL
$967.1K
Oneill Francis James
Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer · 2026-08-10
SELL
$767.7K
Radke Jeffrey L
Director, Co-Founder, CEO, 10% owner · 2026-08-03
SELL
$964.5K
Oneill Francis James
Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer · 2026-07-28
SELL
$1.5M
Sternberg Matthew David
COO, Risk Exchange · 2026-07-27
SELL
$257.2K
Radke Jeffrey L
Director, Co-Founder, CEO, 10% owner · 2026-07-27
SELL
$220.0K
Radke Jeffrey L
Director, Co-Founder, CEO, 10% owner · 2026-07-27
SELL
$1.2M
Oneill Francis James
Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer · 2026-07-27
SELL
$1.6M

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 17:52:49 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026