CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
$13.65
-3.19% 2026-10-20
MaterialsS&P 400
CLFSPY
1W
+6.1%
1M
+9.2%
3M
+47.6%
6M
+49.5%
YTD
+2.8%
1Y
-15.6%
Live chart
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Grades vs sector
Momentum17th pct in sectorD
Momentum
17th pct in sector
12-1 return: -11.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth37th pct in sectorC-
Growth
37th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +5.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value26th pct in sectorD+
Value
26th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 7.8% · EBITDA/EV: 3.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability11th pct in sectorD-
Profitability
11th pct in sector
Profit margin: -4.6% · Return on equity: -13.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsCleveland Cliffs (CLF) Q3 Earnings Recovery Meets Leverage Doubts
Simply Wall St. · 13h ago
Compared to Estimates, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
Zacks · 15h ago
Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week
Kiplinger · 17h ago
Cleveland-Cliffs posts ‘strongest’ quarter in three years: CFO
Manufacturing Dive · 22h ago
Cleveland-Cliffs Declines 6% as Profit Taking Follows Strongest Quarter in Three Years; Critical Metals Slips 2%, Nucor Holds Steady
24/7 Wall St. · 23h ago
Key stats
Market cap$7.8B
P/E (trailing)–
P/E (forward)13.6
52-week range7.73 – 15.48
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+18.5%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusHold (10)
Mean price target$13.35 (-2%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Looks expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -5 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 96%
•Forward P/E vs sector13.6x vs median 12.7x
▼Piotroski F-score2/9
▼Altman Z1.4 (distress)
▼Net debt / EBITDA9.9x
•Analyst target-2% (10 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Steel profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (-0.5B, a -2% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 3.4%) times current revenue = 0.7B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $–; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $1. Glossary
Bear
$-4
-127%
growth 1% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$1
-96%
growth 6% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$5
-60%
growth 9% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 3.4% average margin × current revenue = 0.7B (last 12 months: -0.5B at a -2% margin).
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 15% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+15%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-7%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+28%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.7B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-09-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 2.09 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Materials
P/E (trailing)
sector median 20.6×
–Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 12.7× · 54th pct
13.6×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.1× · 91st pct
20.0×pricier
Price / sales
cheaper
sector median 1.4× · 7th pct
0.4×cheaper
Price / book
cheaper
sector median 2.3× · 23rd pct
1.4×cheaper
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 4.7% · 4th pct
-6.2%pricier
Forward EPS $1.00 vs trailing $-0.83. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
2.9%
Operating margin
-1.4%
FCF margin
-2.4%
Net margin
-2.4%
Return on equity
-8.3%
Return on invested capital
-1.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
9.9×
Current ratio
1.9×
Interest cover
-1.5×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 2/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✗ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 1.4 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$13
-2%
Analysts
10
Hold
Range
$11–$17
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $18.6B | $-1.5B | $-1.0B |
| 2024 | $19.2B | $-760.0M | $-590.0M |
| 2023 | $22.0B | $385.0M | $1.6B |
| 2022 | $23.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| 2021 | $20.4B | $3.0B | $2.1B |
| 2020 | $5.4B | $-122.0M | $-783.0M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -6.8%.
Earnings
Next report: 2027-02-08 · before open · EPS est 0.51
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 0.24 | 0.28 | +17.2% |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.22 | -0.20 | +7.2% |
| 2026-04-20 | -0.42 | -0.40 | +3.9% |
| 2026-02-09 | -0.62 | -0.43 | +30.1% |
| 2025-10-20 | -0.45 | -0.45 | +0.6% |
| 2025-07-21 | -0.67 | -0.50 | +25.9% |
| 2025-05-07 | -0.81 | -0.92 | -13.6% |
| 2025-02-24 | -0.67 | -0.68 | -1.0% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $5.2B | +5.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | $4.9B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $4.3B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $4.7B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $4.9B | – |
Analyst actions
Morgan Stanley
PT $14
2026-10-20 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-WeightPT $14
Wells Fargo
PT $17
2026-10-20 · main
Overweight → OverweightPT $17
Barclays
PT $11
2026-10-19 · main
Underweight → UnderweightPT $11
JP Morgan
PT $12
2026-10-09 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $12
Wells Fargo
PT $14
2026-10-06 · up
Equal-Weight → OverweightPT $14
GLJ Research
PT $17
2026-09-21 · main
Buy → BuyPT $17
Recent dividends
2020-04-02: $0.060 · 2020-01-02: $0.060 · 2019-10-03: $0.100 · 2019-07-03: $0.060 · 2019-04-04: $0.050 · 2019-01-03: $0.050 · 2014-11-12: $0.150 · 2014-08-13: $0.150
Insider trades
None
–
None · None
SELL–
None
–
None · None
SELL–
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 17:46:34 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.