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COP

ConocoPhillips
$145.67
-0.19% Oct 21 close
EnergyS&P 500 Compare
-5%+14%+34%+54%+74%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
COPSPY
1W
+2.3%
1M
+14.2%
3M
+23.4%
6M
+20.5%
YTD
+59.0%
1Y
+73.9%

Live chart

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What they do

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments.

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
64th percentile in sector
B
12-1 return: +45.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
61st percentile in sector
B-
Revenue growth (YoY): +35.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
53rd percentile in sector
C+
Forward E/P: 7.2% · EBITDA/EV: 14.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
56th percentile in sector
C+
Profit margin: +14.4% · Return on equity: +14.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
ranked 78 of 499 · 12-month momentum 44.5%
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
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Key stats

Market value$175.0B
P/E (last 12 months)19.3
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)13.6
52-week range$85.57 – $147.41
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+35.5%
Dividend yield2.30%
Analyst consensusBuy (26)
Average analyst price target$151.27 (+4%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 198%
•Forward P/E vs sector13.6x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
•Analyst target+4% (26 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$264
+81%
growth 8% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$434
+198%
growth 13% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$674
+363%
growth 16% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 30.8% average margin × current revenue = 19.5B (last 12 months: 21.9B at a 35% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $489.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -3% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-3%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-11%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+33%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-9%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+26%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 19.5B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.24 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7× · 54th pct
19.3×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 52nd pct
13.6×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1×
–
Price / sales
sector median 2.2× · 60th pct
2.8×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 71st pct
2.7×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 7.7% · 77th pct
12.5%
cheaper

Forward EPS $10.68 vs trailing $7.55 (+41% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$80.0M
as of 2020-03-31
vs a year ago
–
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.00×
coverage
19-12
20-03

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
62.0%
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
34.6%
Net margin
14.7%
Return on equity
14.2%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.5×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
2.4×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$151
+4%
Analysts
26
Buy
Range
$126–$189
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$58.9B$8.0B$19.8B
2024$54.7B$9.2B$20.1B
2023$56.1B$11.0B$20.0B
2022$78.5B$18.7B$28.3B
2021$45.8B$8.1B$17.0B
2020$18.8B$-2.7B$4.8B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -9.1%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-05 · before open · EPS est 3.02
24-1025-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0426-080.003.24
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-062.933.24+10.6%
2026-04-301.721.89+9.6%
2026-02-051.101.02-7.0%
2025-11-061.411.61+14.1%
2025-08-071.351.42+5.1%
2025-05-082.052.09+2.0%
2025-02-061.831.98+7.9%
2024-10-311.641.78+8.5%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$19.2B+36.8%
2026-03-31$15.8B–
2025-12-31$13.4B–
2025-09-30$15.0B–
2025-06-30$14.0B–
Analyst actions
Susquehanna
2026-10-20 · main
Positive → Positive
PT $175
Morgan Stanley
2026-10-15 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $159
Jefferies
2026-10-07 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $174
Truist Securities
2026-10-07 · main
Hold → Hold
PT $136
UBS
2026-09-14 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $169
Seaport Global
2026-09-03 · init
→ Neutral

Recent dividends

2026-08-17: $0.840 · 2026-05-11: $0.840 · 2026-02-18: $0.840 · 2025-11-17: $0.840 · 2025-08-18: $0.780 · 2025-05-19: $0.780 · 2025-02-14: $0.780 · 2024-11-08: $0.780
Insider trades
Lundquist Andrew D
Senior Vice President · 2026-08-21
SELL
$1.3M
Rose Kelly Brunetti
SVP & General Counsel · 2026-08-20
SELL
$2.0M
None
None · None
SELL
–
None
None · None
SELL
–
None
None · None
SELL
–
None
None · None
SELL
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:23:27 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026