ETSY
ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
$87.41
+2.52% 2026-10-20
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 600
ETSYSPY
1W
+10.3%
1M
+20.4%
3M
+7.0%
6M
+34.1%
YTD
+57.7%
1Y
+22.5%
Live chart
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Grades vs sector
Momentum74th pct in sectorB+
Momentum
74th pct in sector
12-1 return: +15.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth61st pct in sectorB-
Growth
61st pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +6.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value35th pct in sectorC-
Value
35th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 8.1% · EBITDA/EV: 4.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability55th pct in sectorC+
Profitability
55th pct in sector
Profit margin: +7.1% · Return on equity: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsKey stats
Market cap$8.0B
P/E (trailing)25.6
P/E (forward)12.7
52-week range44.00 – 90.31
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+6.2%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (27)
Mean price target$88.07 (+1%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Looks expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -4 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 33%
•Forward P/E vs sector12.7x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▼Altman Z1.7 (distress)
▼Net debt / EBITDA3.6x
•Analyst target+1% (27 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
Bear
$34
-61%
growth 0% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$59
-33%
growth 5% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$86
-2%
growth 8% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%
A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 9% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+9%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+0%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+0%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+4%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+11%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.6B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.86 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 74th pct
25.6×pricier
Forward P/E
cheaper
sector median 13.4× · 45th pct
12.7×cheaper
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.3× · 85th pct
18.9×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 79th pct
2.7×pricier
Price / book
sector median 2.8×
–FCF yield
cheaper
sector median 6.6% · 63rd pct
8.1%cheaper
Forward EPS $6.90 vs trailing $3.42 (+102% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
71.4%
Operating margin
14.3%
FCF margin
22.1%
Net margin
7.1%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
73.2%
Net debt / EBITDA
3.6×
Current ratio
1.5×
Interest cover
18.6×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
3.1×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 1.7 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$88
+1%
Analysts
27
Buy
Range
$59–$105
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.9B | $163.0M | $678.0M |
| 2024 | $2.8B | $303.3M | $738.3M |
| 2023 | $2.7B | $307.6M | $692.6M |
| 2022 | $2.6B | $-694.3M | $673.4M |
| 2021 | $2.3B | $493.5M | $640.3M |
| 2020 | $1.7B | $349.2M | $677.5M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +4.0%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-28 · before open · EPS est 0.74
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 0.73 | -0.36 | -149.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | 0.62 | 0.60 | -3.8% |
| 2026-02-19 | 0.85 | 0.92 | +7.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | 1.04 | 1.02 | -1.8% |
| 2025-07-30 | 1.09 | 0.69 | -36.8% |
| 2025-04-30 | 0.47 | -0.49 | -204.3% |
| 2025-02-19 | 1.46 | 1.31 | -10.6% |
| 2024-10-30 | 1.06 | 0.95 | -10.7% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $668.3M | +6.2% |
| 2026-03-31 | $631.3M | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $881.6M | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $678.0M | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $629.1M | – |
Analyst actions
BTIG
PT $90
2026-09-18 · up
Neutral → BuyPT $90
Oppenheimer
PT $90
2026-09-15 · up
Perform → OutperformPT $90
Argus Research
PT $89
2026-09-08 · main
Buy → BuyPT $89
Rosenblatt
PT $95
2026-08-20 · init
→ BuyPT $95
B of A Securities
PT $105
2026-08-20 · up
Neutral → BuyPT $105
B. Riley Securities
PT $82
2026-08-10 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $82
Insider trades
Buckley Merilee
$456.8K
CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · 2026-10-15
SELL$456.8K
Reiff Melissa
$84.8K
Director · 2026-10-15
SELL$84.8K
Silverman Josh
$35.2K
Director · 2026-10-15
SELL$35.2K
Silverman Josh
$56.4K
Director · 2026-10-13
SELL$56.4K
Silverman Josh
$28.3K
Director · 2026-10-08
SELL$28.3K
Colburn Richard Edward Iii
$297.7K
Chief Product & Tech Officer · 2026-10-05
SELL$297.7K
Colburn Richard Edward Iii
$21.2K
Chief Product & Tech Officer · 2026-10-05
SELL$21.2K
Buckley Merilee
$99.6K
CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · 2026-10-05
SELL$99.6K
Silverman Josh
$61.7K
Director · 2026-10-01
SELL$61.7K
Silverman Josh
$69.7K
Director · 2026-10-01
SELL$69.7K
Silverman Josh
$20.1K
Director · 2026-10-01
SELL$20.1K
Colburn Richard Edward Iii
$89.4K
Chief Product & Tech Officer · 2026-09-03
SELL$89.4K
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:03:16 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.