EXE

Expand Energy Corporation

$93.41

+2.87% 2026-10-16

EnergyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

EXESPY

+5.9%

+5.3%

+6.6%

-1.3%

YTD

-13.9%

-3.1%

Live chart

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What they do

Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia.

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Grades vs sector

Momentum

6th pct in sector

12-1 return: -16.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

8th pct in sector

D-

Revenue growth (YoY): -10.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

83rd pct in sector

A-

Forward E/P: 9.8% · EBITDA/EV: 27.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

65th pct in sector

Profit margin: +22.0% · Return on equity: +14.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 5 live models: Conviction 20.

Conviction 20

6.2% of the book · Core sleeve

Held Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Top 15

rank 382 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -5.5

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

New Highs Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Why it's in Conviction 20

Picked for this research portfolio at the 2026-10-21 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power).

What would knock it out: Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.

News

More news

His Oklahoma City Employer Moved to Texas, Then Paid Him a $20,000 Retention Bonus After He Retired. Social Security Looked at When He Earned It

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 12

Key stats

Market cap$21.3B

P/E (trailing)7.9

P/E (forward)10.1

52-week range83.25 – 126.62

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)-10.6%

Dividend yield2.48%

Analyst consensusBuy (28)

Mean price target$122.54 (+31%)

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 34%

▲Forward P/E vs sector10.1x vs median 13.6x

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

•Altman Z2.7 (grey)

▲Net debt / EBITDA0.6x

▲Analyst target+31% (28 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins

Bear

$29

-69%

growth -10% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$61

-34%

growth -5% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$119

+27%

growth -2% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 9.0% average margin × current revenue = 1.2B (last 12 months: 2.7B at a 20% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $155.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 1% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+1%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

-7%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

+3%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+1%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+7%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 1.2B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.40 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)

sector median 17.7× · 14th pct

7.9×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 13.6× · 30th pct

10.1×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 8.1× · 7th pct

3.8×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 2.2× · 29th pct

1.6×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 1.9× · 9th pct

1.1×
cheaper

FCF yield

sector median 7.7% · 77th pct

12.6%
cheaper

Forward EPS $9.09 vs trailing $11.60 (-22% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

–

Operating margin

26.9%

FCF margin

19.7%

Net margin

20.5%

Return on equity

14.3%

Return on invested capital

12.4%

Net debt / EBITDA

0.6×

Current ratio

1.0×

Interest cover

16.8×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

2.0×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 2.7 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$123

+31%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$92–$156

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$12.1B	$1.8B	$1.8B
2024	$4.2B	$-714.0M	$8.0M
2023	$8.7B	$2.4B	$551.0M
2022	$11.7B	$4.9B	$2.3B
2020	$5.2B	$-9.7B	$22.0M
2019	$8.5B	$-308.0M	$1.6B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +1.1%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-27 · after close · EPS est 1.32

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-07-28	1.12	1.33	+19.1%
2026-04-28	3.63	3.83	+5.4%
2026-02-17	1.89	2.00	+5.8%
2025-10-28	0.85	0.97	+14.2%
2025-07-29	1.15	1.10	-4.1%
2025-04-29	1.87	2.02	+8.0%
2025-02-26	0.47	0.55	+17.5%
2024-10-29	-0.06	0.16	+371.4%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$3.0B	-19.7%
2026-03-31	$4.4B	–
2025-12-31	$3.3B	–
2025-09-30	$3.0B	–
2025-06-30	$3.7B	–

Analyst actions

UBS

2026-10-15 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $120

Morgan Stanley

2026-10-15 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $124

Mizuho

2026-10-06 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $138

Raymond James

2026-10-05 · main

Strong Buy → Strong Buy
PT $141

Bernstein

2026-10-05 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $127

Truist Securities

2026-10-05 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $120

Recent dividends

2026-08-13: $0.575 · 2026-05-14: $0.575 · 2026-03-05: $0.575 · 2025-11-13: $0.575 · 2025-08-14: $1.465 · 2025-05-15: $0.575 · 2025-03-11: $0.575 · 2024-11-14: $0.575

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 11:29:10 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

COTEAU

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

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