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F

Ford Motor Company
$11.95
-1.65% Oct 21 close
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500 Compare
-5%+9%+23%+37%+51%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
FSPY
1W
-0.8%
1M
-9.3%
3M
-16.2%
6M
-3.2%
YTD
-5.8%
1Y
-0.4%

Live chart

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What they do

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories.

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
47th percentile in sector
C
12-1 return: -3.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
17th percentile in sector
D
Revenue growth (YoY): -3.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
51st percentile in sector
C+
Forward E/P: 15.4% · EBITDA/EV: 4.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
5th percentile in sector
F
Profit margin: -3.9% · Return on equity: -18.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
ranked 170 of 499 · 12-month momentum 22.0%
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
GM Plans $20 Billion in Buybacks, but Warns of Bumpy 2027
The Wall Street Journal · Oct 20
1 Volatile Stock to Target This Week and 2 That Underwhelm
StockStory · Oct 20
Why GM’s Massive Share Buyback Isn’t Stopping a Post-Earnings Selloff
Barrons.com · Oct 20
General Motors Sinks 6% Despite Earnings Beat and New Buyback as Outlook Narrows; Ford Slips, Tesla Barely Budges
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 20
Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Akamai Technolgies, Apple, Blackrock, Ford Motor, Healthcare Realty Trust, Noble, Sunoco LP, Venture Global, Western Midstream Partners, Zoetis, and More
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 20

Key stats

Market value$47.7B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)6.2
52-week range$11.11 – $17.78
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)-3.8%
Dividend yield4.94%
Analyst consensusBuy (18)
Average analyst price target$15.56 (+30%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +4 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 345%
▲Forward P/E vs sector6.2x vs median 13.4x
▲Piotroski F-score7/9
▼Altman Z0.9 (distress)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-3.4x
▲Analyst target+30% (18 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$39
+230%
growth -4% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$53
+345%
growth 1% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$68
+473%
growth 4% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 10.6% average margin × current revenue = 20.1B (last 12 months: 18.9B at a 10% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $50.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -48% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-48%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+46%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
-3%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+6%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+8%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 20.1B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-03-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.94 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7×
–
Forward P/E
sector median 13.4× · 4th pct
6.2×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3× · 0th pct
2.0×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 1.2× · 8th pct
0.3×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.8× · 24th pct
1.3×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 6.6% · 99th pct
39.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $1.92 vs trailing $-1.88. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
8.0%
Operating margin
-3.8%
FCF margin
10.0%
Net margin
2.6%
Return on equity
13.4%
Return on invested capital
-77.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
-3.4×
Current ratio
1.1×
Interest cover
-5.4×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
3.8×
Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 0.9 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$16
+30%
Analysts
18
Buy
Range
$13–$20
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$187.3B–$21.3B
2024$185.0B$5.9B$15.4B
2023$176.2B$4.3B$14.9B
2022$158.1B$-2.0B$6.9B
2021$136.3B$17.9B$15.8B
2020$127.1B–$24.3B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +5.8%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-28 · after close · EPS est 0.40
24-1025-0225-0525-0725-1026-0226-0426-070.000.66
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-280.350.42+21.3%
2026-04-290.190.66+256.6%
2026-02-100.190.13-32.9%
2025-10-230.360.45+25.4%
2025-07-300.330.37+11.1%
2025-05-050.020.14+557.0%
2025-02-050.320.39+20.4%
2024-10-280.470.49+3.5%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$48.3B-3.8%
2026-03-31$43.3B–
2025-12-31$45.9B–
2025-09-30$50.5B–
2025-06-30$50.2B–
Analyst actions
JP Morgan
2026-10-12 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $16
UBS
2026-10-07 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $15
Goldman Sachs
2026-10-06 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $14
BNP Paribas
2026-07-30 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $14
Citigroup
2026-07-29 · up
Neutral → Buy
PT $20
JP Morgan
2026-07-29 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $17

Recent dividends

2026-08-11: $0.150 · 2026-05-12: $0.150 · 2026-02-13: $0.150 · 2025-11-07: $0.150 · 2025-08-11: $0.150 · 2025-05-12: $0.150 · 2025-02-18: $0.300 · 2024-11-07: $0.150

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 13:45:53 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026