GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
$61.99
+2.55% 2026-10-20
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 600
GRBKSPY
1W
+0.5%
1M
-6.4%
3M
-12.1%
6M
-12.6%
YTD
-1.1%
1Y
-8.3%
Live chart
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Grades vs sector
Momentum59th pct in sectorB-
Momentum
59th pct in sector
12-1 return: +2.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth6th pct in sectorF
Growth
6th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): -8.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value77th pct in sectorB+
Value
77th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 9.8% · EBITDA/EV: 12.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability68th pct in sectorB
Profitability
68th pct in sector
Profit margin: +14.8% · Return on equity: +16.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsGreen Brick Partners, Inc. Announces Dates For 8-K Filing and Earnings Call
Business Wire · Oct 01
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Trades At A Discount To Earnings
Simply Wall St. · Sep 20
Rainwater Crossing Celebrates Opening of Whispering Grove and Unveiling of Scout's Tree
Business Wire · Sep 17
As Mortgage Rates Hit 7%, Home Builders Flash a Buy Signal
Barrons.com · Sep 11
The Real Cost of a New Home Isn't Just the House. It's Everyone Who Has to Touch It Along the Way.
CNW Group · Aug 27
Key stats
Market cap$2.7B
P/E (trailing)9.3
P/E (forward)10.3
52-week range59.12 – 83.18
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)-8.7%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusHold (1)
Mean price target$62.00 (+0%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 108%
▲Forward P/E vs sector10.3x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▲Altman Z4.6 (safe)
▼Net debt / EBITDA5.1x
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Homebuilding profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.1B, a 6% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 0.9%) times current revenue = 0.0B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $12; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $-5. Glossary
Bear
$-6
-110%
growth -7% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$-5
-108%
growth -2% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$-4
-106%
growth 1% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 0.9% average margin × current revenue = 0.0B (last 12 months: 0.1B at a 6% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $12.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 45% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+45%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+33%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+45%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+5%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+16%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.0B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.76 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
cheaper
sector median 17.7× · 10th pct
9.3×cheaper
Forward P/E
cheaper
sector median 13.4× · 29th pct
10.3×cheaper
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.3× · 98th pct
43.0×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 54th pct
1.4×pricier
Price / book
cheaper
sector median 2.8× · 25th pct
1.3×cheaper
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.6% · 33rd pct
4.2%pricier
Forward EPS $6.00 vs trailing $6.64 (-10% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Backlog (remaining performance obligations)
RPO
$7.5M
as of 2026-06-30
vs a year ago
+9%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.00×
coverage
Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
30.2%
Operating margin
3.3%
FCF margin
5.7%
Net margin
14.8%
Return on equity
14.7%
Return on invested capital
2.2%
Net debt / EBITDA
5.1×
Current ratio
4.2×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.4×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 4.6 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$62
+0%
Analysts
1
Hold
Range
$62–$62
low – high
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.0B | $313.2M | $208.4M |
| 2024 | $2.1B | $381.6M | $21.5M |
| 2023 | $1.7B | $284.6M | $205.5M |
| 2022 | $1.8B | $291.9M | $88.7M |
| 2021 | $1.4B | $190.2M | $-94.4M |
| 2020 | $976.0M | $113.7M | $32.2M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +5.1%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-28 · after close · EPS est 1.43
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 1.39 | 1.70 | +22.3% |
| 2026-04-29 | 1.19 | 1.39 | +17.3% |
| 2026-02-25 | 1.67 | 1.78 | +6.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | 1.48 | 1.77 | +20.0% |
| 2025-07-30 | 1.94 | 1.85 | -4.4% |
| 2025-04-30 | 1.76 | 1.67 | -4.8% |
| 2025-02-26 | 2.02 | 2.31 | +14.6% |
| 2024-10-30 | 2.07 | 1.98 | -4.5% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $493.8M | -8.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | $465.5M | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $552.6M | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $499.1M | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $540.9M | – |
Analyst actions
Citizens
2026-05-19 · reit
Market Perform → Market PerformTexas Capital Securities
PT $71
2025-06-17 · init
→ BuyPT $71
Citizens Capital Markets
2025-03-10 · reit
Market Perform → Market PerformJMP Securities
2024-12-03 · reit
Market Perform → Market PerformB. Riley Securities
PT $78
2024-08-02 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $78
B. Riley Securities
PT $62
2024-05-03 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $62
Insider trades
None
–
None · None
SELL–
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:03:19 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.