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HGV

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
$36.19
+2.58% 2026-10-20
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 400
-20%-8%+4%+16%+28%Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026
HGVSPY
1W
+2.9%
1M
+1.7%
3M
-26.4%
6M
-25.2%
YTD
-19.1%
1Y
-15.4%

Live chart

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What they do

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment market and sells the VOIs.

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Grades vs sector

Momentum
32nd pct in sector
D+
12-1 return: -16.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
61st pct in sector
B-
Revenue growth (YoY): +6.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
73rd pct in sector
B+
Forward E/P: 14.6% · EBITDA/EV: 8.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
32nd pct in sector
D+
Profit margin: +3.2% · Return on equity: +11.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blend
not in the current book
New Highs Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20
not in the current book

News

More news
Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
Zacks · Oct 20
3 Value Stocks We Approach with Caution
StockStory · Oct 16
Hilton Grand Vacations to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results
Business Wire · Oct 15
3 Russell 2000 Stocks with Warning Signs
StockStory · Oct 15
Hilton Grand Vacations Sets the Stage for 2027 HGV Tournament of Champions with Musical Lineup
Business Wire · Oct 07

Key stats

Market cap$2.8B
P/E (trailing)20.6
P/E (forward)7.0
52-week range33.98 – 55.40
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+6.2%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (11)
Mean price target$50.64 (+40%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 60%
▲Forward P/E vs sector7.0x vs median 13.4x
▲Piotroski F-score7/9
▲Analyst target+40% (11 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$-9
-125%
growth 3% · disc. 13.3% · term. 2.0%
Base
$14
-60%
growth 8% · disc. 12.3% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$41
+14%
growth 11% · disc. 11.3% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 10% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+10%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-31%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+27%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+10%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+41%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.4B, 12.3% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.61 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7× · 61st pct
20.6×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 13.4× · 7th pct
7.0×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3×
–
Price / sales
sector median 1.2× · 26th pct
0.5×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.8× · 48th pct
2.6×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 6.6% · 86th pct
14.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $5.18 vs trailing $1.76 (+194% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$153.0M
as of 2026-06-30
vs a year ago
–
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.03×
coverage
18-03
18-06
18-09
25-12
26-03
26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
7.8%
Net margin
2.9%
Return on equity
13.7%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
3.1×
Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$51
+40%
Analysts
11
Buy
Range
$38–$74
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$5.0B$81.0M$230.0M
2024$5.0B$47.0M$267.0M
2023$4.0B$313.0M$281.0M
2022$3.8B$352.0M$689.0M
2021$2.3B$176.0M$150.0M
2020$894.0M$-201.0M$71.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +9.6%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-29 · before open · EPS est 1.12
24-1125-0225-0525-0725-1026-0226-0426-070.001.16
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-301.010.89-11.7%
2026-04-300.590.99+67.5%
2026-02-261.160.88-24.0%
2025-10-300.970.60-38.5%
2025-07-310.810.54-33.1%
2025-05-010.530.09-83.0%
2025-02-270.730.49-33.0%
2024-11-070.660.67+1.2%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$1.4B+7.3%
2026-03-31$1.3B–
2025-12-31$1.3B–
2025-09-30$1.3B–
2025-06-30$1.3B–
Analyst actions
Wells Fargo
2026-10-19 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $38
Goldman Sachs
2026-10-16 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $40
Susquehanna
2026-10-15 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $39
JP Morgan
2026-10-08 · init
→ Neutral
PT $39
Truist Securities
2026-09-10 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $69
Morgan Stanley
2026-08-18 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $54
Insider trades
Corbin Charles R. Jr.
See Remarks · 2026-08-06
SELL
$970.4K
None
None · None
SELL
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:03:05 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

COTEAU

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.