IOT · Coteau

IOT

Samsara Inc.

$42.39

+5.19% 2026-10-20

Technology

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

IOTSPY

+2.7%

+7.2%

+17.5%

+34.9%

YTD

+19.6%

+13.9%

Live chart

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Grades vs sector

Momentum

Not enough data yet

–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

Not enough data yet

–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

Not enough data yet

–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

Not enough data yet

–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Top 15

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

New Highs Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Conviction 20

not in the current book

News

More news

Samsara (IOT): Does a Fourth Straight Profitable Quarter Ensures its Entry into the Index?

Insider Monkey · 18h ago

Key stats

Market cap$24.8B

P/E (trailing)302.8

P/E (forward)44.7

52-week range23.38 – 47.47

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+29.9%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (24)

Mean price target$52.07 (+23%)

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Roughly fairly valued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 47%

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

▲Altman Z12.9 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA-5.9x

▲Analyst target+23% (24 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$11

-75%

growth 18% · disc. 12.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$22

-47%

growth 30% · disc. 11.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$40

-6%

growth 38% · disc. 10.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 32% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+32%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

n/a

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+35%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+45%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.3B, 11.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-01). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.35 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs sector

Forward EPS $0.95 vs trailing $0.14 (+577% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$4.3B

as of 2026-08-01

vs a year ago

+35%

YoY

× TTM revenue

2.32×

coverage

24-11

25-02

25-05

25-08

25-11

26-01

26-05

26-08

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

76.4%

Operating margin

1.0%

FCF margin

13.8%

Net margin

4.9%

Return on equity

5.7%

Return on invested capital

1.3%

Net debt / EBITDA

-5.9×

Current ratio

1.6×

Interest cover

–

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

3.2×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 12.9 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$52

+23%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$39–$60

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2026	$1.6B	$-9.1M	$207.4M
2025	$1.2B	$-154.9M	$111.5M
2024	$937.4M	$-286.7M	$-22.8M
2023	$652.5M	$-247.4M	$-136.3M
2022	$428.3M	$-355.0M	$-190.8M
2021	$249.9M	$-210.2M	$-203.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +35.4%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-12-03 · during market · EPS est 0.19

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-09-03	0.16	0.20	+27.4%
2026-06-04	0.13	0.17	+30.4%
2026-03-05	0.13	0.18	+40.9%
2025-12-04	0.12	0.15	+26.4%
2025-09-04	0.07	0.12	+65.6%
2025-06-05	0.06	0.11	+91.6%
2025-03-06	0.07	0.11	+55.7%
2024-12-05	0.04	0.07	+74.3%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-07-31	$508.4M	+29.9%
2026-04-30	$478.8M	–
2026-01-31	$444.3M	–
2025-10-31	$416.0M	–
2025-07-31	$391.5M	–

Analyst actions

Jefferies

2026-10-05 · init

→ Buy
PT $50

Cantor Fitzgerald

2026-09-15 · init

→ Overweight
PT $45

BNP Paribas

2026-09-04 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $55

Piper Sandler

2026-09-04 · reit

Neutral → Neutral
PT $46

Truist Securities

2026-09-04 · main

Hold → Hold
PT $48

Morgan Stanley

2026-09-04 · main

Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $49

Insider trades

Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis

CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · 2026-10-15

SELL
$87.5K

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-15

SELL
$246.7K

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-15

SELL
$2.4M

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-15

SELL
$146.8K

Bicket John

Director, SEE REMARKS, 10% owner · 2026-10-15

SELL
$246.3K

Bicket John

Director, SEE REMARKS, 10% owner · 2026-10-15

SELL
$2.1M

Bicket John

Director, SEE REMARKS, 10% owner · 2026-10-15

SELL
$432.4K

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-14

SELL
$2.5M

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-14

SELL
$805.3K

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-14

SELL
$704.1K

Biswas Sanjit

Director, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 10% owner · 2026-10-14

SELL
$270.7K

Bicket John

Director, SEE REMARKS, 10% owner · 2026-10-14

SELL
$2.5M

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 17:52:33 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

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