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ITW

ITW

Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$274.97
+1.78% Oct 20 close
IndustrialsS&P 500 Compare
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-5%+1%+7%+14%+20%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
ITWSPY
1W
+3.2%
1M
+2.7%
3M
+1.8%
6M
+2.7%
YTD
+13.8%
1Y
+11.7%

Live chart

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What they do

Illinois Tool Works Inc. provides industrial products and equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles.

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
51st percentile in sector
C+
12-1 return: +8.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
33rd percentile in sector
C-
Revenue growth (YoY): +6.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
32nd percentile in sector
D+
Forward E/P: 4.5% · EBITDA/EV: 5.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
95th percentile in sector
A+
Profit margin: +19.4% · Return on equity: +104.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 272 of 499 · 12-month momentum 7.6%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
Generac Holdings (GNRC) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
Zacks · 23h ago
What Could Go Wrong With Stanley Black & Decker Stock?
Trefis · Oct 20
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Zacks · Oct 20
Illinois Tool Works Faces Headwinds—2 Alternatives Stand Out
MarketBeat · Oct 19
ITW Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast
GlobeNewswire · Oct 15

Key stats

Market value$78.8B
P/E (last 12 months)25.1
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)22.4
52-week range$238.82 – $303.16
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+6.1%
Dividend yield2.50%
Analyst consensusHold (14)
Average analyst price target$294.57 (+7%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -3 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 52%
▼Forward P/E vs sector22.4x vs median 17.1x
•Net debt / EBITDA2.0x
•Analyst target+7% (14 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$73
-73%
growth -2% · disc. 10.1% · term. 2.0%
Base
$133
-52%
growth 3% · disc. 9.1% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$216
-22%
growth 6% · disc. 8.1% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 11% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+11%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+12%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+0%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+5%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 2.9B, 9.1% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.97 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.4× · 47th pct
 25.1×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 17.1× · 72nd pct
 22.4×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.8× · 76th pct
 20.1×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 2.1× · 81st pct
 4.8×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 87th pct
 9.6×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.5% · 39th pct
 3.7%
pricier

Forward EPS $12.34 vs trailing $11.03 (+12% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
53.0%
Operating margin
26.5%
FCF margin
17.7%
Net margin
–
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
19.4%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0×
Current ratio
1.1×
Interest cover
14.5×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–

Analysts

Mean target
$295
+7%
Analysts
14
Hold
Range
$249–$326
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$16.0B–$2.7B
2024$15.9B–$2.8B
2023$16.1B–$3.1B
2022$15.9B–$1.9B
2021$14.5B–$2.3B
2020$12.6B–$2.6B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +0.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-27 · before open · EPS est 2.98
24-1025-0225-0425-0725-1026-0226-0426-070.002.84
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-282.802.84+1.5%
2026-04-302.562.66+3.8%
2026-02-032.692.72+1.1%
2025-10-242.722.81+3.5%
2025-07-302.562.58+0.6%
2025-04-302.352.38+1.1%
2025-02-052.502.54+1.5%
2024-10-302.532.65+4.5%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$4.3B+6.1%
2026-03-31$4.0B–
2025-12-31$4.1B–
2025-09-30$4.1B–
2025-06-30$4.1B–
Analyst actions
JP Morgan
2026-10-09 · down
Overweight → Neutral
PT $277
Truist Securities
2026-10-05 · main
Hold → Hold
PT $297
Evercore ISI Group
2026-08-11 · main
Underperform → Underperform
PT $309
JP Morgan
2026-07-29 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $350
Baird
2026-07-29 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $297
JP Morgan
2026-07-13 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $310

Recent dividends

2026-09-30: $1.720 · 2026-06-30: $1.610 · 2026-03-31: $1.610 · 2025-12-31: $1.610 · 2025-09-30: $1.610 · 2025-06-30: $1.500 · 2025-03-31: $1.500 · 2024-12-31: $1.500
Insider trades
Santi Ernest Scott
Director · 2026-08-19
Sell
$546.6K
Santi Ernest Scott
Director · 2026-08-19
Sell
$2.6M
Santi Ernest Scott
Director · 2026-08-19
Sell
$2.3M
Santi Ernest Scott
Director · 2026-08-19
Sell
$6.4M
Pigozzo Matteo C.
VP & Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-08-13
Sell
$80.1K
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:06:59 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

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