KALU · Coteau

KALU

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

$152.54

+1.55% 2026-10-20

MaterialsS&P 600

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

KALUSPY

+0.5%

+1.6%

-6.8%

+0.5%

YTD

+34.8%

+95.1%

Live chart

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Grades vs sector

Momentum

96th pct in sector

A+

12-1 return: +62.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

92nd pct in sector

Revenue growth (YoY): +52.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

68th pct in sector

Forward E/P: 7.9% · EBITDA/EV: 13.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

70th pct in sector

Profit margin: +5.5% · Return on equity: +26.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Top 15

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

New Highs Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Conviction 20

not in the current book

News

More news

5 Dividend Stocks Going Ex-Dividend This Week. Which Payouts Are Safest?

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 19

Key stats

Market cap$2.5B

P/E (trailing)11.3

P/E (forward)13.1

52-week range77.24 – 199.89

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+52.7%

Dividend yield2.05%

Analyst consensusBuy (5)

Mean price target$170.20 (+12%)

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Leans undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 347%

•Forward P/E vs sector13.1x vs median 12.7x

•Piotroski F-score6/9

▲Altman Z3.1 (safe)

•Net debt / EBITDA1.9x

•Analyst target+12% (5 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins

Bear

$323

+112%

growth 16% · disc. 13.2% · term. 2.0%

Base

$683

+347%

growth 26% · disc. 12.2% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$1,166

+664%

growth 33% · disc. 11.2% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 8.2% average margin × current revenue = 0.3B (last 12 months: 0.2B at a 4% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $350.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 2% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+2%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

-12%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

-1%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+24%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.3B, 12.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.58 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Materials

P/E (trailing)

sector median 20.6× · 12th pct

11.3×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 12.7× · 54th pct

13.1×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 11.1× · 14th pct

7.3×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 1.4× · 17th pct

0.6×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 2.3× · 58th pct

2.6×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 4.7% · 76th pct

7.5%
cheaper

Forward EPS $11.63 vs trailing $13.48 (-14% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

14.5%

Operating margin

8.2%

FCF margin

4.5%

Net margin

5.5%

Return on equity

24.1%

Return on invested capital

14.0%

Net debt / EBITDA

1.9×

Current ratio

2.5×

Interest cover

6.2×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

0.8×

Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 3.1 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$170

+12%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$146–$184

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$3.4B	$112.5M	$111.4M
2024	$3.0B	$65.7M	$167.1M
2023	$3.1B	$67.8M	$211.9M
2022	$3.4B	$-29.6M	$-63.1M
2021	$2.6B	$-18.5M	$79.4M
2020	$1.2B	$28.8M	$206.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -0.5%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-21 · after close · EPS est 2.37

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-07-22	2.66	5.53	+107.8%
2026-04-22	1.96	3.74	+90.5%
2026-02-18	1.56	1.53	-2.0%
2025-10-22	0.89	1.86	+109.9%
2025-07-23	0.76	1.21	+58.2%
2025-04-23	0.60	1.44	+141.8%
2025-02-19	0.41	0.33	-20.3%
2024-10-23	0.65	0.51	-21.4%

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:14:19 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

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