KMX
KMX
CarMax, Inc.
$53.82
+4.20% 2026-10-20
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 600
KMXSPY
1W
+5.9%
1M
-5.9%
3M
-6.6%
6M
+37.9%
YTD
+39.3%
1Y
+25.1%
Live chart
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Grades vs sector
Momentum86th pct in sectorA-
Momentum
86th pct in sector
12-1 return: +31.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth91st pct in sectorA
Growth
91st pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +17.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value25th pct in sectorD+
Value
25th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 6.7% · EBITDA/EV: 4.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability14th pct in sectorD-
Profitability
14th pct in sector
Profit margin: +1.0% · Return on equity: +4.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsCarvana Is Now Down 31% This Year: Is CVNA a Toxic Stock or Ready to Rally?
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 19
Tilly's, CarMax, Monro, OneWater, and Macy's Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know
StockStory · Oct 14
Key stats
Market cap$7.6B
P/E (trailing)25.5
P/E (forward)15.1
52-week range30.26 – 65.28
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+17.7%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusHold (13)
Mean price target$63.77 (+18%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
No cash-flow valuation
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).
•Forward P/E vs sector15.1x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Analyst target+18% (13 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Automotive Retail profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (1.1B, a 4% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2018–FY2026 (9 years: -0.4%) times current revenue = -0.1B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $14; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $–. Glossary
Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.23 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 74th pct
25.5×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 60th pct
15.1×pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3×
–Price / sales
cheaper
sector median 1.2× · 9th pct
0.3×cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.8×
–FCF yield
cheaper
sector median 6.6% · 88th pct
15.0%cheaper
Forward EPS $3.57 vs trailing $2.11 (+69% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
10.3%
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
4.1%
Net margin
1.1%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
2.3×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
5.5×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$64
+18%
Analysts
13
Hold
Range
$43–$96
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $25.9B | $247.3M | $1.2B |
| 2025 | $26.4B | $500.6M | $156.5M |
| 2024 | $26.5B | $479.2M | $-6.7M |
| 2023 | $29.7B | $484.8M | $860.6M |
| 2022 | $31.9B | $1.2B | $-2.9B |
| 2021 | $19.0B | $746.9M | $503.2M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -4.5%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-12-17 · before open · EPS est 0.43
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 0.73 | 1.16 | +58.6% |
| 2026-06-17 | 0.94 | 1.31 | +38.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.21 | 0.34 | +60.6% |
| 2025-12-18 | 0.31 | 0.51 | +66.0% |
| 2025-09-25 | 1.05 | 0.64 | -39.3% |
| 2025-06-20 | 1.17 | 1.38 | +18.3% |
| 2025-04-10 | 0.66 | 0.58 | -12.3% |
| 2024-12-19 | 0.60 | 0.81 | +34.6% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | $8.0B | +6.2% |
| 2026-02-28 | $5.9B | – |
| 2025-11-30 | $5.8B | – |
| 2025-08-31 | $6.6B | – |
| 2025-05-31 | $7.5B | – |
Analyst actions
B of A Securities
PT $65
2026-10-15 · up
Underperform → BuyPT $65
Barclays
PT $67
2026-09-30 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-WeightPT $67
UBS
PT $62
2026-09-30 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $62
Morgan Stanley
PT $53
2026-09-30 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-WeightPT $53
Truist Securities
PT $60
2026-09-30 · main
Hold → HoldPT $60
RBC Capital
PT $56
2026-09-30 · main
Sector Perform → Sector PerformPT $56
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:08:42 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.