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LAD

Lithia Motors, Inc.
$299.53
+2.17% 2026-10-20
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 400
-21%-6%+9%+24%+39%Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026
LADSPY
1W
+4.4%
1M
-5.3%
3M
-9.3%
6M
+7.4%
YTD
-9.3%
1Y
-2.4%

Live chart

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What they do

Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations. It offers a range of products and services fulfilling the entire vehicle ownership lifecycle, including new and used vehicles, financing and insurance products, and aftersales automotive repair and maintenance services.

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Grades vs sector

Momentum
42nd pct in sector
C
12-1 return: -6.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
38th pct in sector
C-
Revenue growth (YoY): +2.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
69th pct in sector
B
Forward E/P: 14.0% · EBITDA/EV: 8.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
26th pct in sector
D+
Profit margin: +1.9% · Return on equity: +10.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blend
not in the current book
New Highs Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Coteau Long Book
not in the current book

News

More news
Why You Should Think About Carvana Differently Now
Trefis · 1h ago
Lithia Motors (LAD) files 8-K: results, other event
SEC 8-K · 5h ago
Lithia & Driveway: Bryan DeBoer To Serve As Both Chairman & CEO
Nasdaq · 7h ago
Lithia & Driveway Profit Rises In Q3
Nasdaq · 8h ago

Key stats

Market cap$6.6B
P/E (trailing)9.9
P/E (forward)7.2
52-week range239.78 – 439.49
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+2.2%
Dividend yield0.96%
Analyst consensusBuy (15)
Mean price target$409.07 (+37%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 38%
▲Forward P/E vs sector7.2x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
•Altman Z2.2 (grey)
▲Net debt / EBITDA1.2x
▲Analyst target+37% (15 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$86
-71%
growth 1% · disc. 11.6% · term. 2.0%
Base
$185
-38%
growth 6% · disc. 10.6% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$310
+3%
growth 9% · disc. 9.6% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 1.1% average margin × current revenue = 0.4B (last 12 months: -0.5B at a -1% margin).

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 10% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+10%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
-57%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+10%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+23%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.4B, 10.6% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.26 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7× · 14th pct
9.9×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 13.4× · 9th pct
7.2×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3× · 1st pct
4.7×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 1.2× · 4th pct
0.2×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.8× · 15th pct
1.0×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 6.6% · 4th pct
-7.7%
pricier

Forward EPS $41.45 vs trailing $30.19 (+37% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$638.0M
as of 2025-12-31
vs a year ago
+55%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.02×
coverage
19-12
20-12
21-12
22-12
23-12
24-12
25-12

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
15.2%
Operating margin
4.1%
FCF margin
-1.3%
Net margin
1.9%
Return on equity
11.2%
Return on invested capital
13.3%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2×
Current ratio
1.0×
Interest cover
5.6×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
-0.2×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 2.2 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$409
+37%
Analysts
15
Buy
Range
$310–$500
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$37.6B$819.6M$5.8M
2024$36.2B$796.7M$73.7M
2023$31.0B$1.0B$-702.6M
2022$28.2B$1.3B$-913.2M
2021$22.8B$1.1B$1.5B
2020$13.1B$470.3M$376.8M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +10.1%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-21 · before open · EPS est 9.68
24-1025-0225-0425-0725-1026-0226-0426-070.0010.24
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-298.7210.03+15.0%
2026-04-296.867.34+7.0%
2026-02-118.106.74-16.8%
2025-10-228.619.50+10.4%
2025-07-299.8110.24+4.4%
2025-04-237.877.66-2.7%
2025-02-127.207.79+8.2%
2024-10-237.608.21+8.1%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$9.8B+2.2%
2026-03-31$9.3B–
2025-12-31$9.2B–
2025-09-30$9.7B–
2025-06-30$9.6B–
Analyst actions
Evercore ISI Group
2026-10-12 · main
Outperform → Outperform
PT $440
UBS
2026-10-07 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $335
JP Morgan
2026-10-06 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $320
Barclays
2026-10-06 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $375
Morgan Stanley
2026-10-05 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $310
Citigroup
2026-09-22 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $409

Recent dividends

2026-08-07: $0.700 · 2026-05-08: $0.570 · 2026-03-06: $0.550 · 2025-11-07: $0.550 · 2025-08-08: $0.550 · 2025-05-09: $0.550 · 2025-03-07: $0.530 · 2024-11-08: $0.530
Insider trades
Loretz Congdon Stacy
Director · 2026-09-11
SELL
$27.8K
Stork David
Chief Administrative Officer · 2026-09-08
SELL
$119.5K
None
None · None
SELL
–
None
None · None
SELL
–
None
None · None
SELL
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:02:58 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

COTEAU

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.