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MRK

Merck & Co., Inc.
$148.30
+3.25% Oct 20 close
Health CareS&P 500
-5%+17%+40%+63%+85%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
MRKSPY
1W
+4.5%
1M
+1.0%
3M
+18.1%
6M
+33.5%
YTD
+43.8%
1Y
+76.8%

Live chart

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What they do

Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive. The company also provides veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, such as livestock products under the Nuflor, Bovilis/Vista.

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
88th percentile in sector
A
12-1 return: +74.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
27th percentile in sector
D+
Revenue growth (YoY): +5.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
62nd percentile in sector
B-
Forward E/P: 6.4% · EBITDA/EV: 7.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
41st percentile in sector
C
Profit margin: +4.8% · Return on equity: +7.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
ranked 37 of 499 · 12-month momentum 80.2%
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
ranked 19 of 589 · 12-month momentum 92.4%
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
What Changed In Amgen's Story?
Trefis · 2h ago
Why This Pharma Pro Likes Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, and Merck Stock
Barrons.com · 2h ago
What Happens To Merck Stock If Keytruda Sales Stop Growing?
Trefis · 17h ago
Stock Market Today: Dow Rises As Oil Prices Surge; Netflix, SpaceX Mixed Ahead Of Earnings (Live Coverage)
Investor's Business Daily · Oct 20
Wall St set for lower open as oil prices jump, earnings in focus
Reuters · Oct 20

Key stats

Market value$365.9B
P/E (last 12 months)117.7
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)16.0
52-week range$82.01 – $156.92
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+5.1%
Dividend yield2.37%
Analyst consensusBuy (25)
Average analyst price target$158.56 (+7%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 40%
•Forward P/E vs sector16.0x vs median 17.6x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
•Analyst target+7% (25 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$50
-66%
growth -1% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$90
-40%
growth 4% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$143
-3%
growth 7% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 9% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+9%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-6%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+4%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+3%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 16.1B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.22 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Health Care

P/E (trailing)
sector median 29.9× · 94th pct
117.7×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 17.6× · 42nd pct
16.0×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 15.8×
–
Price / sales
sector median 3.1× · 70th pct
5.5×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 85th pct
8.7×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.1% · 51st pct
4.4%
cheaper

Forward EPS $9.29 vs trailing $1.26 (+637% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
73.0%
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
24.1%
Net margin
4.8%
Return on equity
7.6%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.3×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
6.3×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$159
+7%
Analysts
25
Buy
Range
$105–$186
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$65.0B$18.3B$12.4B
2024$64.2B$17.1B$18.1B
2023$60.1B$365.0M$9.1B
2022$59.3B$14.5B$14.7B
2021$48.7B$13.0B–
2020$41.5B$7.1B$10.3B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +3.1%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-29 · before open · EPS est 2.09
24-1025-0225-0425-0725-1026-0226-0426-08-1.472.58
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-04-0.26-0.13+49.4%
2026-04-30-1.47-1.28+13.2%
2026-02-032.012.04+1.5%
2025-10-302.352.58+9.8%
2025-07-292.032.13+5.0%
2025-04-242.142.22+4.0%
2025-02-041.671.72+3.3%
2024-10-311.571.57+0.0%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$16.6B+5.1%
2026-03-31$16.3B–
2025-12-31$16.4B–
2025-09-30$17.3B–
2025-06-30$15.8B–
Analyst actions
Citigroup
2026-10-12 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $145
RBC Capital
2026-10-12 · main
Sector Perform → Sector Perform
PT $145
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-10-08 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $145
Morgan Stanley
2026-10-07 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $177
JP Morgan
2026-10-05 · main
Overweight → Overweight
PT $165
Scotiabank
2026-09-29 · main
Sector Outperform → Sector Outperform
PT $180

Recent dividends

2026-09-15: $0.850 · 2026-06-15: $0.850 · 2026-03-16: $0.850 · 2025-12-15: $0.850 · 2025-09-15: $0.810 · 2025-06-16: $0.810 · 2025-03-17: $0.810 · 2024-12-16: $0.810
Insider trades
Guindo Chirfi
EVP, Access, Policy & Comms · 2026-08-13
SELL
$1.4M
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-12
SELL
$79.2K
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-12
SELL
$1.5M
Zachary Jennifer
EVP, General Counsel · 2026-08-12
SELL
$10.7M
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-11
SELL
$718.3K
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-11
SELL
$973.2K
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-10
SELL
$2.7M
Guindo Chirfi
EVP, Access, Policy & Comms · 2026-08-06
SELL
$2.0M
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-06
SELL
$39.3K
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-06
SELL
$644.0K
Deluca Richard R.
EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth · 2026-08-06
SELL
$105.5K
Williams David Michael
EVP,Chief Info&Digital Officer · 2026-08-05
SELL
$4.5M

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:09:15 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

COTEAU

Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026