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NVAX

NVAX

Novavax, Inc.
$11.43
+5.64% 2026-10-20
Healthcare
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-29%-10%+8%+27%+46%Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026
NVAXSPY
1W
-10.8%
1M
+13.1%
3M
+41.5%
6M
+34.6%
YTD
+70.1%
1Y
+30.0%

Live chart

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Grades vs sector

Momentum
Not enough data yet
–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
Not enough data yet
–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
Not enough data yet
–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
Not enough data yet
–

Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–

30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
 Momentum Top 15
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
 Momentum Blend
not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
 Conviction 20
not in the current book

News

More news
3 Reasons NVAX is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
StockStory · 13h ago
Moderna Stock Slumps, but It’s Too Early to Panic
Barrons.com · Oct 16

Key stats

Market cap$1.9B
P/E (trailing)–
P/E (forward)-69.7
52-week range6.20 – 13.39
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)-76.3%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (9)
Mean price target$14.22 (+24%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
No cash-flow valuation
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▼Altman Z-5.6 (distress)
▲Analyst target+24% (9 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 2.44 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs sector

Forward EPS $-0.16 vs trailing $-1.58. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$2.0B
as of 2023-09-30
vs a year ago
–
YoY
× TTM revenue
4.83×
coverage
20-12
23-06
23-09

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
78.6%
Operating margin
-56.6%
FCF margin
-8.9%
Net margin
-59.9%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
2.3×
Interest cover
-10.7×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✗ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score -5.6 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$14
+24%
Analysts
9
Buy
Range
$7–$25
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$1.1B$440.3M$-244.6M
2024$682.2M$-187.5M$-87.3M
2023$983.7M$-545.1M$-714.0M
2022$2.0B$-657.9M$-415.9M
2021$1.1B$-1.7B$322.9M
2020$475.6M$-418.3M$-42.5M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -17.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-05 · before open · EPS est -0.22
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-08-1.132.93
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-06-0.38-0.32+16.6%
2026-05-06-0.37-0.06+83.8%
2026-02-26-0.550.11+120.2%
2025-11-06-1.13-0.47+58.0%
2025-08-060.060.62+1000.3%
2025-05-080.712.93+313.5%
2025-02-27-0.51-0.52-1.2%
2024-11-12-0.75-0.76-1.9%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$56.7M-76.3%
2026-03-31$139.5M–
2025-12-31$147.1M–
2025-09-30$70.4M–
2025-06-30$239.2M–
Analyst actions
Citigroup
2026-10-15 · main
Sell → Sell
PT $8
BTIG
2026-06-11 · reit
Buy → Buy
PT $19
TD Cowen
2026-05-06 · main
Hold → Hold
PT $9
HC Wainwright & Co.
2026-02-27 · main
Buy → Buy
PT $16
BTIG
2026-01-20 · reit
Buy → Buy
PT $19
JP Morgan
2025-11-18 · main
Underweight → Underweight
PT $6

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 17:52:18 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

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