PAYX

Paychex, Inc.

$112.62

+1.69% 2026-10-20

IndustrialsS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

PAYXSPY

+6.0%

-3.0%

+1.6%

+23.0%

YTD

+3.8%

-7.1%

Live chart

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Grades vs sector

Momentum

26th pct in sector

D+

12-1 return: -12.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

32nd pct in sector

D+

Revenue growth (YoY): +5.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

50th pct in sector

C+

Forward E/P: 5.7% · EBITDA/EV: 7.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

96th pct in sector

A+

Profit margin: +27.4% · Return on equity: +47.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Top 15

rank 283 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 4.9

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

New Highs Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Conviction 20

not in the current book

News

More news

ETFs Are Net Sellers of Paychex (PAYX) on Friday

GuruFocus.com · 20h ago

Key stats

Market cap$40.1B

P/E (trailing)22.3

P/E (forward)17.6

52-week range85.45 – 128.78

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+5.9%

Dividend yield4.30%

Analyst consensusHold (14)

Mean price target$113.93 (+1%)

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Roughly fairly valued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).

•DCF (base case)above the price by 6%

•Forward P/E vs sector17.6x vs median 17.1x

•Piotroski F-score6/9

▲Altman Z3.3 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA1.2x

•Analyst target+1% (14 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$69

-38%

growth 3% · disc. 9.5% · term. 2.0%

Base

$119

+6%

growth 8% · disc. 8.5% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$192

+71%

growth 11% · disc. 7.5% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 6% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+6%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

+14%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

+15%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+9%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+10%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 2.0B, 8.5% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.85 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)

sector median 26.4× · 35th pct

22.3×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 17.1× · 54th pct

17.6×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 14.8× · 47th pct

14.4×
cheaper

Price / sales

sector median 2.1× · 91st pct

6.1×
pricier

Price / book

sector median 3.5× · 89th pct

10.8×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 4.5% · 56th pct

5.0%
cheaper

Forward EPS $6.39 vs trailing $5.04 (+27% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$90.8M

as of 2026-08-31

vs a year ago

+1%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.01×

coverage

24-02

24-08

24-11

25-02

25-08

25-11

26-02

26-08

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

74.4%

Operating margin

39.2%

FCF margin

30.5%

Net margin

27.4%

Return on equity

48.7%

Return on invested capital

26.8%

Net debt / EBITDA

1.2×

Current ratio

1.3×

Interest cover

9.7×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.2×

Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 3.3 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$114

+1%

Analysts

Hold

Range

$96–$150

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2026	$6.5B	$1.8B	$2.3B
2025	$5.6B	$1.7B	$1.7B
2024	$5.3B	$1.7B	$1.7B
2023	$5.0B	–	$1.6B
2022	$4.6B	–	$1.5B
2021	$4.1B	–	$1.1B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +9.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-12-18 · before open · EPS est 1.28

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-09-23	1.32	1.34	+1.6%
2026-06-24	1.31	1.32	+0.9%
2026-03-25	1.67	1.71	+2.3%
2025-12-19	1.23	1.26	+2.4%
2025-09-30	1.20	1.22	+1.4%
2025-06-25	1.20	1.19	-0.7%
2025-03-26	1.48	1.49	+0.7%
2024-12-19	1.12	1.14	+1.5%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-05-31	$1.6B	+12.5%
2026-02-28	$1.8B	–
2025-11-30	$1.6B	–
2025-08-31	$1.5B	–
2025-05-31	$1.4B	–

Analyst actions

Baird

2026-09-28 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $110

Cantor Fitzgerald

2026-09-28 · main

Underweight → Underweight
PT $96

UBS

2026-09-24 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $115

BMO Capital

2026-09-24 · main

Market Perform → Market Perform
PT $113

Stifel

2026-09-24 · main

Hold → Hold
PT $112

RBC Capital

2026-09-24 · reit

Sector Perform → Sector Perform
PT $130

Recent dividends

2026-07-28: $1.190 · 2026-05-13: $1.190 · 2026-01-28: $1.080 · 2025-11-07: $1.080 · 2025-07-21: $1.080 · 2025-05-12: $1.080 · 2025-02-07: $0.980 · 2024-11-07: $0.980

Insider trades

Velli Joseph M

Director · 2026-10-14

SELL
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:08:38 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

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