PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
$18.34
+5.22% 2026-10-20
Technology
PGYSPY
1W
+2.9%
1M
-10.2%
3M
+4.9%
6M
+28.1%
YTD
-12.2%
1Y
-36.6%
Live chart
Loading live chart…
Grades vs sector
MomentumNot enough data yet–
Momentum
Not enough data yet
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
GrowthNot enough data yet–
Growth
Not enough data yet
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
ValueNot enough data yet–
Value
Not enough data yet
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
ProfitabilityNot enough data yet–
Profitability
Not enough data yet
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsPagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note
Zacks · Oct 16
PGY vs. OMF: Which Consumer Lending Stock Has Better Growth Potential?
Zacks · Oct 15
Pagaya Closes 100th Asset-Backed Securitization with New $650 Million Auto ABS Deal
Business Wire · Oct 12
Will PGY's Expanding Funding Base Reduce Its Reliance on ABS Markets?
Zacks · Oct 08
Pagaya Announces Timing of Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Business Wire · Oct 06
Key stats
Market cap$1.5B
P/E (trailing)13.3
P/E (forward)4.5
52-week range10.40 – 31.06
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+18.6%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (11)
Mean price target$28.82 (+57%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 527%
•Piotroski F-score6/9
•Altman Z1.8 (grey)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.2x
▲Analyst target+57% (11 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
Bear
$62
+237%
growth 12% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$115
+527%
growth 19% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$193
+955%
growth 24% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%
A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -9% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-9%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+20%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
n/a
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.3B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 5.52 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs sector
Forward EPS $4.10 vs trailing $1.38 (+197% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
43.4%
Operating margin
24.9%
FCF margin
18.1%
Net margin
9.1%
Return on equity
21.3%
Return on invested capital
50.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2×
Current ratio
1.4×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
2.1×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 1.8 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$29
+57%
Analysts
11
Strong Buy
Range
$23–$36
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.3B | $81.4M | $224.7M |
| 2024 | $1.0B | $-401.4M | $30.0M |
| 2023 | $812.1M | $-128.4M | $-41.8M |
| 2022 | $748.9M | $-302.3M | $-62.4M |
| 2021 | $474.6M | $-91.2M | $43.2M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +20.2%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-29 · before open · EPS est 1.00
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 0.72 | 1.07 | +48.0% |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.56 | 0.73 | +29.4% |
| 2026-02-09 | 0.77 | 0.80 | +4.4% |
| 2025-11-10 | 0.66 | 1.02 | +54.9% |
| 2025-08-07 | 0.67 | 0.64 | -5.0% |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.46 | 0.69 | +49.5% |
| 2025-02-13 | 0.32 | 0.17 | -46.6% |
| 2024-11-12 | 0.27 | 0.44 | +60.2% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $365.6M | +15.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | $299.0M | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $321.0M | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $339.9M | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $317.7M | – |
Analyst actions
TD Cowen
PT $25
2026-10-06 · main
Buy → BuyPT $25
StoneX
PT $33
2026-09-29 · reit
Buy → BuyPT $33
Jefferies
PT $27
2026-08-18 · main
Buy → BuyPT $27
B. Riley Securities
PT $36
2026-07-31 · main
Buy → BuyPT $36
Citizens
PT $25
2026-07-31 · main
Market Outperform → Market OutperformPT $25
Canaccord Genuity
PT $36
2026-07-31 · main
Buy → BuyPT $36
Insider trades
Rosen Tami
$35.4K
Director · 2026-10-02
SELL$35.4K
Vieira Cory
$37.0K
Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-09-28
SELL$37.0K
Das Sanjiv
$243.7K
President · 2026-09-28
SELL$243.7K
Dobres Jonathan
$10.1K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-28
SELL$10.1K
Rosen Tami
$173.3K
Director · 2026-09-18
SELL$173.3K
Dobres Jonathan
$45.9K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17
SELL$45.9K
Rosen Tami
$143.9K
Director · 2026-09-12
SELL$143.9K
Das Sanjiv
$268.8K
President · 2026-09-12
SELL$268.8K
Dobres Jonathan
$11.8K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-12
SELL$11.8K
Rosen Tami
$29.2K
Director · 2026-09-03
SELL$29.2K
Vieira Cory
$69.8K
Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-09-02
SELL$69.8K
Rosen Tami
$619.4K
Director · 2026-08-03
SELL$619.4K
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:14:02 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.