PSX

Phillips 66

$291.03

+0.17% 2026-10-20

EnergyS&P 500

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

PSXSPY

-0.6%

+6.6%

+37.8%

+84.9%

YTD

+130.3%

+129.9%

Live chart

Loading live chart…

Grades vs sector

Momentum

90th pct in sector

12-1 return: +93.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

75th pct in sector

B+

Revenue growth (YoY): +53.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

45th pct in sector

Forward E/P: 10.2% · EBITDA/EV: 7.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

52nd pct in sector

C+

Profit margin: +4.7% · Return on equity: +23.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Top 15

rank 29 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % 86.7

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

New Highs Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Conviction 20

not in the current book

News

More news

Valero Energy's Q3 Earnings Approach: Higher Refining Margins Fuel Optimism

Zacks · 5h ago

Gas Never Used To Be This Pricey In October; West Coast Imports Are Surging

Investor's Business Daily · Oct 19

Phillips 66 Stock Is Up 133%. Can Its Dividend Keep Growing?

24/7 Wall St. · Oct 19

iShares Russell Mid-Cap (IWR) Buys $1.7 Million More Marathon Petroleum on Oct. 14

GuruFocus.com · Oct 16

Can Valero's Heavy Crude Advantage Support Stronger Refining Margins?

Zacks · Oct 15

Key stats

Market cap$116.7B

P/E (trailing)16.6

P/E (forward)9.6

52-week range126.92 – 299.39

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+53.1%

Dividend yield1.83%

Analyst consensusBuy (19)

Mean price target$283.05 (-3%)

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Looks undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +4 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 255%

▲Forward P/E vs sector9.6x vs median 13.6x

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

•Analyst target-3% (19 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins

Bear

$494

+70%

growth 14% · disc. 8.8% · term. 2.0%

Base

$1,032

+255%

growth 23% · disc. 7.8% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$1,971

+577%

growth 28% · disc. 6.8% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 4.5% average margin × current revenue = 6.8B (last 12 months: 8.9B at a 6% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $1,348.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 1% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+1%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

-23%/yr

FCF, last 5 yrs

+19%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

-8%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+16%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 6.8B, 7.8% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.70 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)

sector median 17.7× · 46th pct

16.6×
cheaper

Forward P/E

sector median 13.6× · 27th pct

9.6×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 8.1×

–

Price / sales

sector median 2.2× · 8th pct

0.8×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 1.9× · 84th pct

3.7×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 7.7% · 49th pct

7.6%
pricier

Forward EPS $30.28 vs trailing $17.50 (+73% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$761.0M

as of 2026-06-30

vs a year ago

-18%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.01×

coverage

24-09

24-12

25-03

25-06

25-09

25-12

26-03

26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

13.1%

Operating margin

–

FCF margin

5.9%

Net margin

4.7%

Return on equity

22.5%

Return on invested capital

–

Net debt / EBITDA

–

Current ratio

1.3×

Interest cover

–

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.3×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target

$283

-3%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$173–$350

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$132.4B	$4.4B	$5.0B
2024	$143.2B	$2.1B	$4.2B
2023	$147.4B	$7.0B	$7.0B
2022	$170.0B	$11.0B	$10.8B
2021	$111.5B	$1.3B	$6.0B
2020	$64.1B	$-4.0B	$2.1B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -8.0%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-28 · before open · EPS est 11.86

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-05	7.50	9.41	+25.4%
2026-04-29	-0.39	0.49	+225.7%
2026-02-04	2.15	2.47	+14.7%
2025-10-29	2.16	2.52	+16.8%
2025-07-25	1.71	2.38	+38.9%
2025-04-25	-0.72	-0.90	-25.6%
2025-01-31	-0.22	-0.15	+32.2%
2024-10-29	1.66	2.04	+22.5%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$51.0B	+53.1%
2026-03-31	$32.5B	–
2025-12-31	$34.1B	–
2025-09-30	$34.5B	–
2025-06-30	$33.3B	–

Analyst actions

Wells Fargo

2026-10-14 · main

Overweight → Overweight
PT $345

Citigroup

2026-10-13 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $297

Barclays

2026-10-12 · main

Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $282

Evercore ISI Group

2026-10-12 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $250

Mizuho

2026-10-08 · down

Outperform → Neutral
PT $300

Goldman Sachs

2026-10-01 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $274

Recent dividends

2026-08-18: $1.270 · 2026-05-18: $1.270 · 2026-02-23: $1.270 · 2025-11-17: $1.200 · 2025-08-19: $1.200 · 2025-05-19: $1.200 · 2025-02-24: $1.150 · 2024-11-18: $1.150

Insider trades

Mandell Brian

Executive Vice President · 2026-09-16

SELL
$6.2M

Harbison Richard G

EVP, Refining · 2026-08-12

SELL
$11.7M

Mandell Brian

Executive Vice President · 2026-08-11

SELL
$6.5M

Mandell Brian

Executive Vice President · 2026-08-10

SELL
$706.3K

Davis Lisa Ann

Director · 2026-08-10

SELL
$207.2K

Davis Lisa Ann

Director · 2026-08-10

SELL
$41.7K

Davis Lisa Ann

Director · 2026-08-10

SELL
$65.8K

Kluppel Ann M

SVP and Controller · 2026-08-10

SELL
$442.3K

Kluppel Ann M

SVP and Controller · 2026-08-10

SELL
$417.0K

Kluppel Ann M

SVP and Controller · 2026-08-10

SELL
$422.9K

Kluppel Ann M

SVP and Controller · 2026-08-07

SELL
$369.0K

None

None · None

SELL
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:03:13 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

How it works Disclaimer Terms Privacy Data status