SMTC
Semtech Corporation
$136.20
-4.23% 2026-10-20
Information TechnologyS&P 400
SMTCSPY
1W
-21.2%
1M
-26.4%
3M
-1.2%
6M
+31.6%
YTD
+84.8%
1Y
+98.7%
Live chart
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Grades vs sector
Momentum92nd pct in sectorA
Momentum
92nd pct in sector
12-1 return: +162.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth78th pct in sectorB+
Growth
78th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +32.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value25th pct in sectorD+
Value
25th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 4.9% · EBITDA/EV: 1.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability66th pct in sectorB
Profitability
66th pct in sector
Profit margin: +13.1% · Return on equity: +23.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthrank 14 of 589 · 12-1 momentum % 114.5
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsKey stats
Market cap$12.7B
P/E (trailing)90.2
P/E (forward)20.4
52-week range60.28 – 201.99
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+32.7%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (15)
Mean price target$217.07 (+59%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 73%
▼Forward P/E vs sector20.4x vs median 16.9x
▲Piotroski F-score7/9
▼Net debt / EBITDA6.2x
▲Analyst target+59% (15 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Semiconductors profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.2B, a 16% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2017–FY2026 (10 years: 13.2%) times current revenue = 0.1B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $45; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $37. Glossary
Bear
$19
-86%
growth 13% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$37
-73%
growth 22% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$59
-56%
growth 28% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 13.2% average margin × current revenue = 0.1B (last 12 months: 0.2B at a 16% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $45.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 35% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+35%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+20%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+15%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+12%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+12%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.1B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-04-26). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 2.42 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Information Technology
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 35.9× · 88th pct
90.2×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 16.9× · 59th pct
20.4×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 20.8× · 98th pct
246.1×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 4.6× · 83rd pct
11.7×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 5.1× · 91st pct
23.1×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 3.5% · 22nd pct
1.4%pricier
Forward EPS $6.67 vs trailing $1.51 (+342% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
51.6%
Operating margin
2.1%
FCF margin
15.9%
Net margin
-3.0%
Return on equity
-6.0%
Return on invested capital
2.0%
Net debt / EBITDA
6.2×
Current ratio
2.4×
Interest cover
2.3×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$217
+59%
Analysts
15
Strong Buy
Range
$186–$300
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.0B | $-40.4M | $171.4M |
| 2025 | $909.3M | $-161.9M | $50.1M |
| 2024 | $868.8M | $-1.1B | $-123.1M |
| 2023 | $756.5M | $61.4M | $98.4M |
| 2022 | $740.9M | $125.7M | $176.9M |
| 2021 | $595.1M | $59.9M | $86.2M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +11.5%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-11-23 · during market · EPS est 1.13
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 0.61 | 0.71 | +15.6% |
| 2026-05-26 | 0.45 | 0.51 | +12.5% |
| 2026-03-16 | 0.43 | 0.44 | +2.0% |
| 2025-11-24 | 0.45 | 0.48 | +7.9% |
| 2025-08-25 | 0.40 | 0.41 | +2.2% |
| 2025-05-27 | 0.37 | 0.38 | +2.5% |
| 2025-03-13 | 0.32 | 0.40 | +25.6% |
| 2024-11-25 | 0.23 | 0.26 | +11.7% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | $341.9M | +32.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | $291.0M | – |
| 2026-01-31 | $274.4M | – |
| 2025-10-31 | $267.0M | – |
| 2025-07-31 | $257.6M | – |
Analyst actions
TD Cowen
PT $215
2026-10-16 · reit
Buy → BuyPT $215
Northland Capital Markets
PT $186
2026-10-16 · up
Market Perform → OutperformPT $186
Stifel
PT $200
2026-10-16 · main
Buy → BuyPT $200
BMO Capital
PT $230
2026-10-13 · main
Outperform → OutperformPT $230
Stifel
PT $220
2026-10-05 · main
Buy → BuyPT $220
Oppenheimer
PT $225
2026-10-01 · main
Outperform → OutperformPT $225
Insider trades
Green Jason Elliot
$526.5K
EVP and CCO · 2026-10-07
SELL$526.5K
Hou Hong Q
$382.4K
Director, President and CEO · 2026-10-02
SELL$382.4K
Lin Mark
$173.0K
EVP and CFO · 2026-10-01
SELL$173.0K
Walsh Paul V Jr
$86.3K
Director · 2026-09-23
SELL$86.3K
Cardenuto Rodolpho C
$878.0K
Director · 2026-09-16
SELL$878.0K
Lin Mark
$109.2K
EVP and CFO · 2026-09-10
SELL$109.2K
Ruehl Julie Garcia
$217.5K
Director · 2026-09-04
SELL$217.5K
Hou Hong Q
$277.4K
Director, President and CEO · 2026-09-04
SELL$277.4K
Walsh Paul V Jr
$67.7K
Director · 2026-08-19
SELL$67.7K
Silberstein Asaf
$750.0K
EVP and COO · 2026-08-17
SELL$750.0K
Hou Hong Q
$280.0K
Director, President and CEO · 2026-08-07
SELL$280.0K
Walsh Paul V Jr
$66.5K
Director · 2026-07-22
SELL$66.5K
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 17:52:31 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.