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TLN

Talen Energy Corporation
$359.49
+2.88% Oct 21 close
UtilitiesS&P 400 CompareTechnicals
-31%-19%-7%+5%+17%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
TLNSPY
1W
+0.3%
1M
+19.8%
3M
-4.7%
6M
+5.9%
YTD
-4.1%
1Y
-5.9%

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What they do

Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company's plants generate power using a variety of fuels, such as nuclear, fossil, oil, natural gas, and coal power plants. It owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure.

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
10th percentile in sector
D-
12-1 return: -21.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
100th percentile in sector
A+
Revenue growth (YoY): +111.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
46th percentile in sector
C
Forward E/P: 8.7% · EBITDA/EV: 2.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
2nd percentile in sector
F
Profit margin: -4.9% · Return on equity: -12.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Held by 1 of 5 live models: Coteau Long Book.

Coteau Long Book
4.3% of the book · Core sleeve
Held
Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Why it's in the Coteau Long Book

Picked for this research portfolio at the Oct 21, 2026 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power).

What would knock it out: Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.

News

More news
Bloom Energy Q3 Earnings on Deck: Should Investors Buy or Wait?
Zacks · Oct 19
Here’s What Weighed on Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)
Insider Monkey · Oct 15
Constellation Energy (CEG) vs. VST and TLN: Can Nuclear Power and AI Demand Drive Earnings Growth?
Insider Monkey · Oct 14
Stock Market Today, Oct. 13: Fermi Surges 14% on AMD Credit Support for Project Matador
Motley Fool · Oct 13
Vistra Bombed Over The Last Year: One Analyst Says The AI Power Play Will Gain 90% Within a Year
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 13

Key stats

Market value$17.0B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)11.6
52-week range$279.77 – $449.84
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+111.2%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (18)
Average analyst price target$457.06 (+27%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)below the price by 14%
▲Forward P/E vs sector11.6x vs median 16.9x
▼Piotroski F-score3/9
▼Altman Z0.9 (distress)
▼Net debt / EBITDA22.3x
▲Analyst target+27% (18 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$44
-88%
growth 18% · disc. 13.3% · term. 2.0%
Base
$309
-14%
growth 30% · disc. 12.3% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$675
+88%
growth 38% · disc. 11.3% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 24% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+24%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 5 yrs
n/a
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.6B, 12.3% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.62 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Utilities

P/E (trailing)
sector median 20.8×
–
Forward P/E
sector median 16.9× · 12th pct
11.6×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 12.8× · 100th pct
63.0×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 3.0× · 88th pct
4.9×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 98th pct
10.5×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 0.1% · 56th pct
3.3%
cheaper

Forward EPS $30.99 vs trailing $-4.13. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$4.0B
as of 2026-06-30
vs a year ago
–
YoY
× TTM revenue
1.16×
coverage
26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
2.6%
FCF margin
16.5%
Net margin
-5.4%
Return on equity
-11.4%
Return on invested capital
0.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
22.3×
Current ratio
0.8×
Interest cover
0.4×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 3/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 0.9 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$457
+27%
Analysts
18
Buy
Range
$307–$560
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$2.6B$-219.0M$606.0M
2024$2.1B$998.0M$171.0M
2022$3.1B–$-45.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR –.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-03 · before open · EPS est 7.30
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-08-1.084.38
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-053.392.37-30.0%
2026-05-054.264.38+2.9%
2026-02-264.334.38+1.2%
2025-11-053.673.29-10.3%
2025-08-07-0.18-1.08-496.6%
2025-05-080.711.72+143.1%
2025-02-28-0.200.47+331.1%
2024-11-14-0.130.99+860.4%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$959.0M+111.2%
2026-03-31$1.2B–
2025-12-31$771.0M–
2025-09-30$770.0M–
2025-06-30$454.0M–
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on TLN
Initiated
2026-10-16 · CIBC started covering TLN at Outperformer
Reiterated
2026-09-18 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on TLN
Initiated
2026-08-24 · Mizuho started covering TLN at Outperform
Reiterated
2026-08-21 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on TLN
Reiterated
2026-08-06 · Wells Fargo reiterated Overweight on TLN

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:06:37 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026