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TOL

Toll Brothers
$135.50
+3.34% Oct 20 close
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 400 CompareTechnicals
-8%0%+7%+15%+23%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
TOLSPY
1W
+2.1%
1M
+2.0%
3M
-7.8%
6M
-8.3%
YTD
+1.0%
1Y
+0.6%

Live chart

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What they do

Toll Brothers, Inc. designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities.

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
54th percentile in sector
C+
12-1 return: +0.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
4th percentile in sector
F
Revenue growth (YoY): -9.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
74th percentile in sector
B+
Forward E/P: 10.3% · EBITDA/EV: 11.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
58th percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +11.1% · Return on equity: +14.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
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Key stats

52-week range$123.68 – $165.20
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 38%
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.7x

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$123
-9%
growth -3% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$187
+38%
growth 2% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$273
+102%
growth 5% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 10.1% average margin × current revenue = 1.1B (last 12 months: 1.1B at a 10% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $188.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Not enough data to run a reverse DCF.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-07-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.00 (n/a) × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7×
–
Forward P/E
sector median 13.4×
–
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3×
–
Price / sales
sector median 1.2×
–
Price / book
sector median 2.8×
–
FCF yield
sector median 6.6%
–

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
23.7%
Operating margin
13.8%
FCF margin
10.1%
Net margin
11.1%
Return on equity
14.0%
Return on invested capital
15.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.7×
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.0×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

No analyst targets available.

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$11.0B$1.3B$1.0B
2024$10.8B$1.6B$936.5M
2023$10.0B$1.4B$1.2B
2022$10.3B$1.3B$915.1M
2021$8.8B$833.6M$1.2B
2020$7.1B$446.6M$898.6M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +2.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-12-08 · during market · EPS est 4.89
24-1225-0225-0525-0825-1226-0226-0526-080.004.88
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-182.942.97+0.9%
2026-05-192.592.72+5.1%
2026-02-172.112.19+3.9%
2025-12-084.884.58-6.0%
2025-08-193.603.73+3.8%
2025-05-202.863.50+22.4%
2025-02-182.051.75-14.8%
2024-12-094.354.63+6.5%
Insider trades
East Stephen F.
Director · 2026-09-24
Sell
$108.8K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:00:13 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026